NOTE: Changes could be made to bets, but will be finalized by 10 MTP.
Early Pick 3 (R1-3) Early Pick 5 (R1-5) Race 11 & 12 Double. Late Pick 6 (R7-12) Late Pick 5 (R8-12) Daily Double (R1 & 2).
DAILY DOUBLE: (3/2)
EARLY PICK 3: (3-4/2/2-6)
EARLY PICK 5: (3-4/2-6/2-6-1/2/3-12)
LATE PICK 5:(2-12/1-3/10/12/7)
LATE PICK 6: (3-6/2-6-12/1-3/10/12/7-5)
RACE 11-12 DOUBLE: (12/7)
Race 1: Race is a 6-furlong race on the dirt that is an optional claimer. (Start of DD, EP3, EP5)
NOTES: This race has the chance to favor speed on a sloppy track, and the 3 has done very well and has gone over the buyer par on the wet track with a 423 rating. A risk is the 4 who has a phenomenal slop rating, but the poor performance at 6 furlongs. You also might want to consider the 2, but the slop may not support closers (proven from yesterday's results).
PICK: 3-4-2-1
Race 2: Race 2 is a 1-mile optional claimer on the dirt.
NOTES: The race has a ton of speed with the 3, 6, and 2 in a speed duel, and I believe the 6 and 3 will wear each other down and let the two finish nicely who has a good record on slop tracks. Expect some closers like the 1/1a and 5 to close into the 3rd and fourths slots while 6th holds on for a second.
PICK: 2-6-5-1
Race 3: Race 3 is a 6-furlong maiden on the dirt. (End of EP3)
NOTES: The race is tricky, but the 3 has great training numbers and has a great price at 10-1. The 1/1A could have a shot in this race. The 6 is concerning since it has not run in over 2 years (likely due to injury) but has a decent shot at the race. The 9 could show some speed and could benefit from the wet track but will fade like it did in its previous two races for fourth.
PICK: 2-6-1-9
Race 4: Race 4 is a 7-furlong optional claimer on the dirt.
NOTES: This race features the 2 which had a phenomenal race to break his maiden, but struggled against Kentucky Derby horses Code of Honor, Maximum Security, Vekoma, and others. Today he takes a step down in class to face optional claimers, and will probably not have much press on the speed and will cruise to an easy win, with an unpredictable finish behind him.
PICK: 2-4-9-7
Race 5: Race 5 is a 1 1/16 mile maiden race on the turf. (End of EP5)
NOTES: There is no point in picking a winner on dirt because it is anyone's race since none of these fillies have ever run on dirt. You should be praying for the race to stay on the turf, and expect the 3 to close in on a speedy 6 and 7 with a final deep close from the 12 as the seven and six fades late.
PICK: 3-12-6-7
Race 6: Race 6 is the Humana Distaff (Grade 1) at 7 furlongs on the dirt.
NOTES: Could the 3 pull off the big upset over the 7? 3 has great slop numbers and the 7 seems to be out of form, still great training numbers though, expect 5 to get out and fade and the 2 to stalk but struggle on the wet track. Other horses will struggle to find a rhythm in this high-class race.
PICK: 3-7-2-5
Race 7: Race 7 is the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Grade 2) at 1 mile on the turf. (Start of LP6)
NOTES: Lots of great horses, not much speed in this race, so do not expect a great close on this softer than usual track. I think the 3 which performs well at this distance will do well stalking the upfront pace, while some midpack closers finish the final spots in a generally open race.
PICK: 3-6-7-5
Race 8: Race 8 is the Churchill Downs Stakes (Grade 1) at 7 furlongs on the dirt. (Start of LP5)
NOTES: This race is arguably the best and most challenging race of the day with A HUGE amount of speed with clockers at 133 and 129 for the 6 and 8 horses which will wear each other down and the stud 2 on the slop will close for the upset with the 12 closings strong on the outside positions. Definitely, an open race which is a good race to spread to keep your chances alive in the Pick 5 & 6.
PICK: 2-6-12-8
Race 9: Race 9 is the American Turf Stakes (Grade 2) at 1 1/16 miles on the turf.
NOTES: NO SPEED at all in this race, which forced the 1 to go out, and will wire the race with some closers behind it. Buyers are abysmal in the race and no one can contest the buyer par. Difficult race with a chance at a longshot coming in.
PICK: 1-3-8-2
Race 10: Race 10 is the Pat Day Mile Stakes (Grade 3) at 1 mile on the dirt.
NOTES: Confusing race again with inexperienced horses that don't run on slop, but 10 manages to win to no one's surprise. Overall bad race to bet on with a lot of horses that could complete the super.
PICK: 10-2-9-3
Race 11: Race 11 is the Old Forester Turf Classic (Grade 1) at 1 1/8 miles on the turf. (Start of LD)
NOTES: 12 will stalk the pace with experience and buyers to back it up on this soft turf and will cruise by for the win while 9 and 10 come charging towards the finish and the speedy 7 fades to fourth.
PICK:12-10-9-7
Race 12: Race 12 if the Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt.
NOTES: The pace will be dominated by 7 and will be contested by 17, on slow fractions. The 7 will wire the race as the 17 struggles to close and eventually fades to a closing 5 and 16, with the 8 barely making it past the 17 for fourth. Behind them, 17 fades to fifth, and the 19 closes for 6th in arguably the biggest race in all of horse racing.
PICK: 7-5-16-8
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