Belmont Stakes Early Contenders

With just a week till the Belmont Stakes, here are 3 horses you should consider with your early past performance watch. Why you should disregard Game Winner and War of Will. 

Tacitus- Tacitus is a strange pick for this race, because I am unsure if he can handle the long distance of a 1 1/2 mile. The 75k MSW was a concerning race for me, as he struggled to handle the quick pace, and barely won a G2 with another quick pace. IF the pace is quick, it might not be a good race for Tacitus, as he tries to contest the pace and stalking the quick pace would lead to a fade late. Overall, it is a risky pick, but it could pay off with decent ods probably around the 6-1 to 8-1 range.

Spinoff- Disregarding the sloppy and crowded Kentucky Derby, Spinoffs career has been pretty impressive. I am not sure if he can handle the distance growing, and might be contesting the speed horses with trainer Todd Pletcher. In his career, he has come up short in shorter distance races, and this race might be perfect. Stalking the pace and making a strong move would be similar to Justify's run in the Belmont last year. Odds on Spinoff will be around the 10-1 range and is a good pick to throw in a trifecta, just in case he fades late, which is possible since he has only proved to handle 1 1/18 mile and shorter.

Master Fencer- Master Fencer had a terrible post position in the Kentucky Derby, and a terrible spot back almost 20 lengths, and closed in the slop, and came just four lengths of the lead, closing 16 lengths in the slop is impressive. It managed to close 6 lengths in the stretch in the slop. With a better post, and an even longer distance, this horse is very promising for this and will have great odds around 15-1 possibly even higher than 20-1 in certain situations.


War of Will and Game Winner will not be able to handle the increase in distance, as they love stalking and making moves. I suspect that the lack of speed will lead to them both going to the front with Spinoff, which will lead to collapse and the closers with finish up the field. However, this will be a completely different race if it goes to the slop, but for now, Master Fencer and Tacitus are promising picks in this race.