Welcome to Saratoga Springs Racing, where we are all excited for the start of the Saratoga meet starting on Thursday, July 11. Opening day will feature the G3 Schuylerville for 2-Year-Olds, and the G2 The Quick Call. It will be an exciting day of racing for sure, and we will be featuring a Daily Double bet and an Early Pick 3 bet.
NOTE: Because of the high chance for good weather, only regular bets will be provided for races. If rain somehow takes races off the turf, we will only update our regular bets 10 MTP. We apologize that we cannot update our Pick 3 and Daily Double picks. If the rain begins, and races are immediately washed off the turf, we can update our specialty picks for you!
Daily Double (R1 & R2) and Early Pick 3 (R1-R3)
Daily Double: (3/6-2)
Early Pick 3:(3/6-2-2)
Race 1: Race 1 is a $32,000 claiming race, at 1 3/16 miles on the dirt (Star of EP3 & DD)..
NOTES: Race 1 is a very interesting race, as you can find a lot of value in this race. My value pick has to be the number 3 horse, who appreciated the switch to dirt, running second twice, and nearly winning. The distance increase will help, and Carmouche will help stalk the pace. This horse ran once at this distance and got an 82 buyer, which is the top of the class in this claimer. What is confusing is the fact that many trainers such as 7 and 2 are racing their horses at far longer distances that they can hold upon, and the fact that these two horses are the favorites, means that you are getting a lot of value out of the other horses. I also have a little interest in the 6, who could stalk the pace and close, but I worry that the fractions will be too quick, and he will burn out. Maybe you could throw in the 4, who has had terrible form recently but could turn around today.
PICK: 3-6-2-4
Race 2: Race 2 is a $90k Maiden Special Weight, at 5 1/2 furlongs on the Inner Turf Course (End of DD).
NOTES: This race would be a more competitive race if the 12 horse could have had a better post. Seems like the 12 will be forced to go out with the 11 and then the 2 can cruise on by to win a chalky race. I think if the 12 had a better post position (perhaps in the 3-6 range) it could have won the race. The 11 will fade to 3rd like it did in a recent 5 Furlong showing. 8 could be a longshot in some exotic bets that was sold at an expensive price. Could close, but looks more like a long distance horse than a sprinter.
PICK: 2-12-11-8
Race 3: Race 3 is a $92k allowance race at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt (End of P3).
NOTES: This race is an interesting race. First, we can take a quick look at the favorite number 4, who has put up some very impressive buyers recently, but I don't think looking at his most recent race at allowance, he will be able to stand against the competition is this very talented field. I expect him to come second in this race (similar to what he did last race). The horse that I like in this race is the number 2 horse, who I think will like the distance increase in this fast field. The strongest horse in this field has to bet the 6 horse, where I'm not sure if this distance increase will be appreciated, as I think he is more of a mile or 7 furlongs horse than a long distance horse.
PICK: 2-4-6-7
Race 4: Race 4 is a $50k claiming race at 1 mile on the inner turf course.
NOTES: This race has 2 sped horses who typically can't hold with other speed in the race. Even though 2 is the favorite, I think he will enjoy this quick pace and has a decent price at 3-1. I think 10 and 5 will be able to hold on for 2nd and 3rd. A longshot to consider is the number 6 horse, who has only raced once on turf but is a deep closer. You might want to throw him in, as he could possibly have a late charge into the top 3.
PICK: 2-10-5-6
Race 5: Race 5 is a $78k maiden special weight at 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt.
NOTES: This race will be tough, as these horses are all 2 years old, and only a few have ever raced in their lives. The 3 is an interesting pick, as she has great training numbers and a good jockey-trainer combination. I would recommend sticking with a WPS bet, as these 2 YO maiden special weights can have crazy finishes, so don't expect for you to cash in an exacta or trifecta in this race.
PICK: 3-9-2-1
Race 6: Race 6 is an $80k allowance race at 5 1/2 furlongs on the Mellon turf course.
NOTES: I recommend betting against the favorites in this race because there is a lot of talented specialists at this distance. My eye catches the number 4 horse, who has done very well at this distance. Another horse might be the 8, who appears to want a shorter turf distance. I think the 1 and 1A horses are poor at this distance and ill-suited for 5 1/2 furlongs, as they both appear to want to go longer than shorter. This is a great race to try and go with a trifecta or superfecta because there is so much value in some of these longshots.
PICK: 4-8-9-10
Race 7: Race 7 is an $83k allowance optional claimer at 1 /18 miles on the inner turf course.
NOTES: This is a pretty solid race, as these horses are very high-quality horses. For instance, the 4 and 5 horses have raced in graded races, including the 5's very decent outing in the G1 Diana finishing seventh by 5 lengths. However, I like the 10 horse who will appreciate the distance upping and has already run well recently. He is in good shape and will close strong, while the 5 closes for fourth, the 4 flattens to 2nd and the longshot 6 finishes 3rd on an appreciated distance increase.
PICK: 10-4-6-5
Race 8: Race 8 is the $150k G3 Schuylerville at 6 furlongs on the dirt.
NOTES: Similar to maiden special weights for 2-year-olds, this race is hard to tell who is going to win. One thing is for sure, there is a ridiculous amount of speed in this race, which means that a closer could take advantage. My eyes are looking at the 6 horse, who raced at 5 furlongs and still closed. The extra furlong will help this horse cruise on by, while horses like the 1 and 8 can hold on for 2nd and 3rd. Overall, I would recommend doing an exacta, because you could get good value out of the 6 horse at 12-1, maybe pairing it with the 1 and 8 horse.
PICK: 6-1-8-9
Race 9: Race 9 is a $100k G2 The Quick Call at 5 1/2 furlongs on the Mellon turf course.
NOTES: 6 is just the class of the race. I don't think any of these other horses under a good ride could beat the 6, as they just haven't faced the same competition. For a time, Call Paul was one of the top Kentucky Derby contenders as a 2-year-old and hasn't slowed down as 3-year-old. I also expect good things from the 10 and 4, who have a good setup in this race, and will appreciate this 5 1/2 furlong turf race. You might want to go play some exotics, but it is riskier due to the fact that is the shortest race at Saratoga, and anything can happen in these types of races.
PICK: 6-4-10-1
Race 10 is the final race of the opening day and is a $48k maiden claiming race at 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf course.
NOTES: In my opinion, betting on maiden claimers is a huge gamble and you can rarely get the right pick, but if you want to look at a horse, you might want to check out the 5 horse, who might have promise being a Chad Brown horse, and likely he senses something is wrong with the horse or it could be injury prone. However, it is well trained and could do well in this race, not to mention it has a great price at 6-1.
PICK: 5
Tuesday, July 9, 2019
Friday, May 31, 2019
Belmont Stakes Early Contenders
With just a week till the Belmont Stakes, here are 3 horses you should consider with your early past performance watch. Why you should disregard Game Winner and War of Will.
Tacitus- Tacitus is a strange pick for this race, because I am unsure if he can handle the long distance of a 1 1/2 mile. The 75k MSW was a concerning race for me, as he struggled to handle the quick pace, and barely won a G2 with another quick pace. IF the pace is quick, it might not be a good race for Tacitus, as he tries to contest the pace and stalking the quick pace would lead to a fade late. Overall, it is a risky pick, but it could pay off with decent ods probably around the 6-1 to 8-1 range.
Spinoff- Disregarding the sloppy and crowded Kentucky Derby, Spinoffs career has been pretty impressive. I am not sure if he can handle the distance growing, and might be contesting the speed horses with trainer Todd Pletcher. In his career, he has come up short in shorter distance races, and this race might be perfect. Stalking the pace and making a strong move would be similar to Justify's run in the Belmont last year. Odds on Spinoff will be around the 10-1 range and is a good pick to throw in a trifecta, just in case he fades late, which is possible since he has only proved to handle 1 1/18 mile and shorter.
Master Fencer- Master Fencer had a terrible post position in the Kentucky Derby, and a terrible spot back almost 20 lengths, and closed in the slop, and came just four lengths of the lead, closing 16 lengths in the slop is impressive. It managed to close 6 lengths in the stretch in the slop. With a better post, and an even longer distance, this horse is very promising for this and will have great odds around 15-1 possibly even higher than 20-1 in certain situations.
War of Will and Game Winner will not be able to handle the increase in distance, as they love stalking and making moves. I suspect that the lack of speed will lead to them both going to the front with Spinoff, which will lead to collapse and the closers with finish up the field. However, this will be a completely different race if it goes to the slop, but for now, Master Fencer and Tacitus are promising picks in this race.
Tacitus- Tacitus is a strange pick for this race, because I am unsure if he can handle the long distance of a 1 1/2 mile. The 75k MSW was a concerning race for me, as he struggled to handle the quick pace, and barely won a G2 with another quick pace. IF the pace is quick, it might not be a good race for Tacitus, as he tries to contest the pace and stalking the quick pace would lead to a fade late. Overall, it is a risky pick, but it could pay off with decent ods probably around the 6-1 to 8-1 range.
Spinoff- Disregarding the sloppy and crowded Kentucky Derby, Spinoffs career has been pretty impressive. I am not sure if he can handle the distance growing, and might be contesting the speed horses with trainer Todd Pletcher. In his career, he has come up short in shorter distance races, and this race might be perfect. Stalking the pace and making a strong move would be similar to Justify's run in the Belmont last year. Odds on Spinoff will be around the 10-1 range and is a good pick to throw in a trifecta, just in case he fades late, which is possible since he has only proved to handle 1 1/18 mile and shorter.
Master Fencer- Master Fencer had a terrible post position in the Kentucky Derby, and a terrible spot back almost 20 lengths, and closed in the slop, and came just four lengths of the lead, closing 16 lengths in the slop is impressive. It managed to close 6 lengths in the stretch in the slop. With a better post, and an even longer distance, this horse is very promising for this and will have great odds around 15-1 possibly even higher than 20-1 in certain situations.
War of Will and Game Winner will not be able to handle the increase in distance, as they love stalking and making moves. I suspect that the lack of speed will lead to them both going to the front with Spinoff, which will lead to collapse and the closers with finish up the field. However, this will be a completely different race if it goes to the slop, but for now, Master Fencer and Tacitus are promising picks in this race.
Wednesday, May 8, 2019
Kentucky Derby 145: Most Controversial Call in Horse Racing History?
The Most Controversial Ending to a Kentucky Derby in History
By Cole Wise
As Maximum Security crossed the wire on Saturday's Kentucky Derby in the slop, jockey Luis Saez was celebrating, along with Jason Servis, and Gary & Mary West. However, the celebration was shortlived as the large red sign appeared, and after over 20 minutes of waiting, Maximum Security was placed 17th, and in an instant, 9 Million Dollars bet on MS, and 3 million dollars in purse money was taken away from arguably the rightful winner to the 65-1 shot Country House. As Flavian Pratt and Bill Mott were congratulated for what some would call an "artifical" win, boos could be heard from the stands, as many tore up there tickets in disbelief. In just over 20 minutes, the stewards were forced to make a 12 million dollar decision that will be controversial forever.
Looking back at the replay's MS did veer into the lane of War of Will, but some would argue the horse was starting to fade, which started the initial contact to Long Range Toddy and Country House. MS was clearly scared of the infield and tried to veer out. After, Saez tried to take MS back into his lane and did effectively crossing the wire in the first place.
Without a doubt, Maximum Security was the best horse in that race and it is a shame to see the winner of the race and arguably the best horse in the race taken down to 17th (where Long Range Toddy had placed) and the amazing efforts taken away.
There is a simple solution that Churchill Downs will try to avoid at all costs, lowering the field to 14 horses instead of 20. Issues like the ones faced on Saturday would not have happened in a smaller field, but CD was too greedy and is likely putting money over the safety of these horses, and until a horse goes down, Churchill Downs will not shrink the field. With 20 horses in the race, there is going to be contact, which makes it a shame that because of this, Maximum Security was taken down.
Do you think Maximum Security was wrongly DQ'ed? Watch this video to figure out and comment your opinions down below.
Friday, May 3, 2019
Kentucky Derby FULL Predictions
Welcome to Saratoga Springs Racing full Kentucky Derby day predictions. Under current weather forecasts, the day will be filled with showers that will dampen the track. Because of this, we will only be giving out predictions considered for a sloppy track (NOTE: Graded Races on Turf will typically be kept on the turf, but make sure to watch the lower class races that could be moved to the dirt. If there are low-class races under the criteria, we will make two individual predictions regarding if it stays on turf or if it goes to the dirt.
NOTE: Changes could be made to bets, but will be finalized by 10 MTP.
Early Pick 3 (R1-3) Early Pick 5 (R1-5) Race 11 & 12 Double. Late Pick 6 (R7-12) Late Pick 5 (R8-12) Daily Double (R1 & 2).
DAILY DOUBLE: (3/2)
EARLY PICK 3: (3-4/2/2-6)
EARLY PICK 5: (3-4/2-6/2-6-1/2/3-12)
LATE PICK 5:(2-12/1-3/10/12/7)
LATE PICK 6: (3-6/2-6-12/1-3/10/12/7-5)
RACE 11-12 DOUBLE: (12/7)
Race 1: Race is a 6-furlong race on the dirt that is an optional claimer. (Start of DD, EP3, EP5)
NOTES: This race has the chance to favor speed on a sloppy track, and the 3 has done very well and has gone over the buyer par on the wet track with a 423 rating. A risk is the 4 who has a phenomenal slop rating, but the poor performance at 6 furlongs. You also might want to consider the 2, but the slop may not support closers (proven from yesterday's results).
PICK: 3-4-2-1
Race 2: Race 2 is a 1-mile optional claimer on the dirt.
NOTES: The race has a ton of speed with the 3, 6, and 2 in a speed duel, and I believe the 6 and 3 will wear each other down and let the two finish nicely who has a good record on slop tracks. Expect some closers like the 1/1a and 5 to close into the 3rd and fourths slots while 6th holds on for a second.
PICK: 2-6-5-1
Race 3: Race 3 is a 6-furlong maiden on the dirt. (End of EP3)
NOTES: The race is tricky, but the 3 has great training numbers and has a great price at 10-1. The 1/1A could have a shot in this race. The 6 is concerning since it has not run in over 2 years (likely due to injury) but has a decent shot at the race. The 9 could show some speed and could benefit from the wet track but will fade like it did in its previous two races for fourth.
PICK: 2-6-1-9
Race 4: Race 4 is a 7-furlong optional claimer on the dirt.
NOTES: This race features the 2 which had a phenomenal race to break his maiden, but struggled against Kentucky Derby horses Code of Honor, Maximum Security, Vekoma, and others. Today he takes a step down in class to face optional claimers, and will probably not have much press on the speed and will cruise to an easy win, with an unpredictable finish behind him.
PICK: 2-4-9-7
Race 5: Race 5 is a 1 1/16 mile maiden race on the turf. (End of EP5)
NOTES: There is no point in picking a winner on dirt because it is anyone's race since none of these fillies have ever run on dirt. You should be praying for the race to stay on the turf, and expect the 3 to close in on a speedy 6 and 7 with a final deep close from the 12 as the seven and six fades late.
PICK: 3-12-6-7
Race 6: Race 6 is the Humana Distaff (Grade 1) at 7 furlongs on the dirt.
NOTES: Could the 3 pull off the big upset over the 7? 3 has great slop numbers and the 7 seems to be out of form, still great training numbers though, expect 5 to get out and fade and the 2 to stalk but struggle on the wet track. Other horses will struggle to find a rhythm in this high-class race.
PICK: 3-7-2-5
Race 7: Race 7 is the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Grade 2) at 1 mile on the turf. (Start of LP6)
NOTES: Lots of great horses, not much speed in this race, so do not expect a great close on this softer than usual track. I think the 3 which performs well at this distance will do well stalking the upfront pace, while some midpack closers finish the final spots in a generally open race.
PICK: 3-6-7-5
Race 8: Race 8 is the Churchill Downs Stakes (Grade 1) at 7 furlongs on the dirt. (Start of LP5)
NOTES: This race is arguably the best and most challenging race of the day with A HUGE amount of speed with clockers at 133 and 129 for the 6 and 8 horses which will wear each other down and the stud 2 on the slop will close for the upset with the 12 closings strong on the outside positions. Definitely, an open race which is a good race to spread to keep your chances alive in the Pick 5 & 6.
PICK: 2-6-12-8
Race 9: Race 9 is the American Turf Stakes (Grade 2) at 1 1/16 miles on the turf.
NOTES: NO SPEED at all in this race, which forced the 1 to go out, and will wire the race with some closers behind it. Buyers are abysmal in the race and no one can contest the buyer par. Difficult race with a chance at a longshot coming in.
PICK: 1-3-8-2
Race 10: Race 10 is the Pat Day Mile Stakes (Grade 3) at 1 mile on the dirt.
NOTES: Confusing race again with inexperienced horses that don't run on slop, but 10 manages to win to no one's surprise. Overall bad race to bet on with a lot of horses that could complete the super.
PICK: 10-2-9-3
Race 11: Race 11 is the Old Forester Turf Classic (Grade 1) at 1 1/8 miles on the turf. (Start of LD)
NOTES: 12 will stalk the pace with experience and buyers to back it up on this soft turf and will cruise by for the win while 9 and 10 come charging towards the finish and the speedy 7 fades to fourth.
PICK:12-10-9-7
Race 12: Race 12 if the Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt.
NOTES: The pace will be dominated by 7 and will be contested by 17, on slow fractions. The 7 will wire the race as the 17 struggles to close and eventually fades to a closing 5 and 16, with the 8 barely making it past the 17 for fourth. Behind them, 17 fades to fifth, and the 19 closes for 6th in arguably the biggest race in all of horse racing.
PICK: 7-5-16-8
NOTE: Changes could be made to bets, but will be finalized by 10 MTP.
Early Pick 3 (R1-3) Early Pick 5 (R1-5) Race 11 & 12 Double. Late Pick 6 (R7-12) Late Pick 5 (R8-12) Daily Double (R1 & 2).
DAILY DOUBLE: (3/2)
EARLY PICK 3: (3-4/2/2-6)
EARLY PICK 5: (3-4/2-6/2-6-1/2/3-12)
LATE PICK 5:(2-12/1-3/10/12/7)
LATE PICK 6: (3-6/2-6-12/1-3/10/12/7-5)
RACE 11-12 DOUBLE: (12/7)
Race 1: Race is a 6-furlong race on the dirt that is an optional claimer. (Start of DD, EP3, EP5)
NOTES: This race has the chance to favor speed on a sloppy track, and the 3 has done very well and has gone over the buyer par on the wet track with a 423 rating. A risk is the 4 who has a phenomenal slop rating, but the poor performance at 6 furlongs. You also might want to consider the 2, but the slop may not support closers (proven from yesterday's results).
PICK: 3-4-2-1
Race 2: Race 2 is a 1-mile optional claimer on the dirt.
NOTES: The race has a ton of speed with the 3, 6, and 2 in a speed duel, and I believe the 6 and 3 will wear each other down and let the two finish nicely who has a good record on slop tracks. Expect some closers like the 1/1a and 5 to close into the 3rd and fourths slots while 6th holds on for a second.
PICK: 2-6-5-1
Race 3: Race 3 is a 6-furlong maiden on the dirt. (End of EP3)
NOTES: The race is tricky, but the 3 has great training numbers and has a great price at 10-1. The 1/1A could have a shot in this race. The 6 is concerning since it has not run in over 2 years (likely due to injury) but has a decent shot at the race. The 9 could show some speed and could benefit from the wet track but will fade like it did in its previous two races for fourth.
PICK: 2-6-1-9
Race 4: Race 4 is a 7-furlong optional claimer on the dirt.
NOTES: This race features the 2 which had a phenomenal race to break his maiden, but struggled against Kentucky Derby horses Code of Honor, Maximum Security, Vekoma, and others. Today he takes a step down in class to face optional claimers, and will probably not have much press on the speed and will cruise to an easy win, with an unpredictable finish behind him.
PICK: 2-4-9-7
Race 5: Race 5 is a 1 1/16 mile maiden race on the turf. (End of EP5)
NOTES: There is no point in picking a winner on dirt because it is anyone's race since none of these fillies have ever run on dirt. You should be praying for the race to stay on the turf, and expect the 3 to close in on a speedy 6 and 7 with a final deep close from the 12 as the seven and six fades late.
PICK: 3-12-6-7
Race 6: Race 6 is the Humana Distaff (Grade 1) at 7 furlongs on the dirt.
NOTES: Could the 3 pull off the big upset over the 7? 3 has great slop numbers and the 7 seems to be out of form, still great training numbers though, expect 5 to get out and fade and the 2 to stalk but struggle on the wet track. Other horses will struggle to find a rhythm in this high-class race.
PICK: 3-7-2-5
Race 7: Race 7 is the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Grade 2) at 1 mile on the turf. (Start of LP6)
NOTES: Lots of great horses, not much speed in this race, so do not expect a great close on this softer than usual track. I think the 3 which performs well at this distance will do well stalking the upfront pace, while some midpack closers finish the final spots in a generally open race.
PICK: 3-6-7-5
Race 8: Race 8 is the Churchill Downs Stakes (Grade 1) at 7 furlongs on the dirt. (Start of LP5)
NOTES: This race is arguably the best and most challenging race of the day with A HUGE amount of speed with clockers at 133 and 129 for the 6 and 8 horses which will wear each other down and the stud 2 on the slop will close for the upset with the 12 closings strong on the outside positions. Definitely, an open race which is a good race to spread to keep your chances alive in the Pick 5 & 6.
PICK: 2-6-12-8
Race 9: Race 9 is the American Turf Stakes (Grade 2) at 1 1/16 miles on the turf.
NOTES: NO SPEED at all in this race, which forced the 1 to go out, and will wire the race with some closers behind it. Buyers are abysmal in the race and no one can contest the buyer par. Difficult race with a chance at a longshot coming in.
PICK: 1-3-8-2
Race 10: Race 10 is the Pat Day Mile Stakes (Grade 3) at 1 mile on the dirt.
NOTES: Confusing race again with inexperienced horses that don't run on slop, but 10 manages to win to no one's surprise. Overall bad race to bet on with a lot of horses that could complete the super.
PICK: 10-2-9-3
Race 11: Race 11 is the Old Forester Turf Classic (Grade 1) at 1 1/8 miles on the turf. (Start of LD)
NOTES: 12 will stalk the pace with experience and buyers to back it up on this soft turf and will cruise by for the win while 9 and 10 come charging towards the finish and the speedy 7 fades to fourth.
PICK:12-10-9-7
Race 12: Race 12 if the Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt.
NOTES: The pace will be dominated by 7 and will be contested by 17, on slow fractions. The 7 will wire the race as the 17 struggles to close and eventually fades to a closing 5 and 16, with the 8 barely making it past the 17 for fourth. Behind them, 17 fades to fifth, and the 19 closes for 6th in arguably the biggest race in all of horse racing.
PICK: 7-5-16-8
ENJOY THE DERBY!
Thursday, May 2, 2019
Kentucky Oaks Day FULL Predictions!
Welcome back to Saratoga Springs Racing for Kentucky Oaks Day! The feature race of the day is the Kentucky Oaks and includes a great card. The weather has a possibility of being unpredictable so there will be predictions for both turf/off the turf or a fast/sloppy track if applicable so you can figure out your picks.
NOTE: Changes could be made to bets, but will be made final 10 MTP before each race.
EARLY PICK 3 (R1-R3) EARLY PICK 5 (R1-R5) Race 10-11 Double, R6-11 Pick 6, Early Daily Double 1-2, Late Pick 3 R9-11, Late Pick 5 (R-7-11)
NOTE: If you want some higher class races like G1 races will not be washed off the turf, so you might want to combine bets so that you can have a nice spread to cover the tracks that will be washed off and the ones that will not.
DAILY DOUBLE: (5-6/3)(Normal Conditions)(9-3/2)(Wet Conditions/If R1 goes to dirt)
EARLY PICK 3: (5-6/3/9-3)(Normal Conditions)(9-3/2/8-3)(Wet conditions/if R1 Goes to dirt)
EARLY PICK 5: (5-6/3/9-3/5/3-9-6)(Normal Conditions)(9-3/2/8-3/10-4/4-2)(Wet conditions if certain races applicable go on dirt (check online to figure this out before betting))
LATE PICK 6: (1/1-8/2/1-7/6-1/6-4)(1/1-2-8/3/7-2/6-1/6-7-4)
LATE PICK 5: (1-8/2/1-7/6-1/6-4)(1-2-8/3/7-2/6-1/6-7-4)
LATE DOUBLE: (6/6-7-4)(includes both slop and fast bets combined)
Race 1: Race 1 is a 1-mile allowance race on the turf, which starts the Early Pick 3, Early Pick 5, and Daily Double.
Notes: The race will probably have a speed duel between the 10 and 5 horses and could lead to a hot pace to close into. I expect the 5 to stalk the 10 (due to the fact of the bad post position on the 10, and can close) If this race goes on dirt, I believe the 9 can stalk and win the race at a great price of 15-1.
IF ON DIRT: 9-5-4-8
IF ON TURF: 5-2-10-8
Race 2: Race 2 is a 6-furlong allowance optional claimer which finishes the Daily Double.
Notes: This race does not have much speed, and I feel like the 6 and 3 have great shots at winning this on a regular fast track, but if the race goes to a wet track, I believe the 3 and 2 have great chances of winning with excellent wet ratings and performance in the slop.
IF FAST: 6-3-2-4
IF WET: 3-2-6-4
Race 3: Race 3 is a 7-furlong optional claimer which finishes the pick 3.
Notes: The race has a little bit of speed and I think the 9 has a good shot on a fast track. I like the 3 horse but it has been inconsistent and seems to be inconsistent on the pace. It feels risky and a bad price to bet on at 5/2. (PARTIAL REFUND ON PICK 3 AND PICK 5 (SCRATCH 3))
IF FAST: 9-3-6-8
IF WET: 8-3-4-9
Race 4: Race 4 is a 1 1/16 mile race on the turf.
Notes: This race is a terrible race, and I strongly recommend you do not bet on this race, because there is a ridiculous amount of speed that fades, the only good horse is on the Eligibles list, but there is value in the 5 horse at 10-1 and has proven to be able to go long distances and could benefit on the crazy fast pace.
IF TURF: 5-12-3-4 (does not include eligibles)
IF DIRT: 10-4-1-11
NOTE: IF THERE ARE A LOT OF ELIGIBLES COMING IN, THERE COULD BE A NEW BET ADDED BEFORE POST TIME
NOTE: 1,5,12 are scratched please add a new bet CONSIDER 19.
Race 5: Race 5 is The Eight Belles Stakes (Grade 2) at 7 furlongs on the dirt that finishes the pick 5.
Notes: Tons of speed from the 4, 1, and 9 could lead to a duel that leads a close form the 3 horse at a good price. Lots of horses could win this race so it's a good race to spread your bets on some higher prices. 4 can dominate if the track goes sloppy.
IF FAST: 3-9-6-1
IF WET: 4-2-3-6
Race 6: Race 6 is The Edgewood Stakes (Grade 3) at 1 1/16 miles on the Turf.
NOTES: 1 is the class of the race, no one comes close in buyer figures, the turf will be yielding with rain, perfect for what the 1 wants. Other horses will close including 4 but will have no match to dominance from 1 at a short price of 3/5
IF YIELDING/REGULAR: 1-2-5-4
Race 7: Race 7 is the Alysheba Stakes (Grade 2) at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt.
NOTES: Good race, not much speed but 1 & 8 will close in the exacta, 6 and 2 have a chance if there was more speed in the race.
IF FAST: 1-8-2-6
IF WET: 1-2-6-8
Race 8: Race 8 is the LA Troienne Stakes (Grade 1) at 1 1/16 miles
NOTES: Tons of chalk in this race, but some good horses, bet against the inconsistent favorite 9 and bet the 2 or if it is sloppy let the 3 dominate. Try to pair up some longshots with the 3,2, and possibly 1 on the inside with a wire-loving Santana.
IF FAST: 2-1-3-9
SLOP: 3-2-9-4
Race 9: Race 9 is an allowance optional claimer at 7 furlongs.
NOTES: Difficult race to pick, not much speed in the race, a chance for some longshots. 1 would dominate if it was on dirt, but it will be sloppy and the 1 (not 1A) has an abysmal 280 rating on the slop track.
IF FAST: 1-7-2-4
SLOP: 7-2-4-5
Race 10: Race 10 is the Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes (Grade 2) at 5 1/2 furlongs on turf.
NOTES: Will not be washed off, speed duel between 6 and 1 but 6 has great buyers and wins by a couple lengths, 8 and 9 close for 3rd and fourth way behind 1 and 6, for a very chalky race.
IF YIELDING/REGULAR:6-1-8-9
Race 11: Race 11 is the Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) at 1 1/18 miles on the dirt
NOTES: HUGE longshot 6 will stalk the 7 and the out of form 4 will finish third, in a huge upset with 7 holding on for a second. 1 has a chance in the race and has proven to be good in the slop. 6 unknown on sloppy track but has a great pedigree to back it up and a great price.
IF SLOPPY: 6-7-4-1
IF FAST: 6-4-10-7
NOTE: Changes could be made to bets, but will be made final 10 MTP before each race.
EARLY PICK 3 (R1-R3) EARLY PICK 5 (R1-R5) Race 10-11 Double, R6-11 Pick 6, Early Daily Double 1-2, Late Pick 3 R9-11, Late Pick 5 (R-7-11)
NOTE: If you want some higher class races like G1 races will not be washed off the turf, so you might want to combine bets so that you can have a nice spread to cover the tracks that will be washed off and the ones that will not.
DAILY DOUBLE: (5-6/3)(Normal Conditions)(9-3/2)(Wet Conditions/If R1 goes to dirt)
EARLY PICK 3: (5-6/3/9-3)(Normal Conditions)(9-3/2/8-3)(Wet conditions/if R1 Goes to dirt)
EARLY PICK 5: (5-6/3/9-3/5/3-9-6)(Normal Conditions)(9-3/2/8-3/10-4/4-2)(Wet conditions if certain races applicable go on dirt (check online to figure this out before betting))
LATE PICK 6: (1/1-8/2/1-7/6-1/6-4)(1/1-2-8/3/7-2/6-1/6-7-4)
LATE PICK 5: (1-8/2/1-7/6-1/6-4)(1-2-8/3/7-2/6-1/6-7-4)
LATE DOUBLE: (6/6-7-4)(includes both slop and fast bets combined)
Race 1: Race 1 is a 1-mile allowance race on the turf, which starts the Early Pick 3, Early Pick 5, and Daily Double.
Notes: The race will probably have a speed duel between the 10 and 5 horses and could lead to a hot pace to close into. I expect the 5 to stalk the 10 (due to the fact of the bad post position on the 10, and can close) If this race goes on dirt, I believe the 9 can stalk and win the race at a great price of 15-1.
IF ON DIRT: 9-5-4-8
IF ON TURF: 5-2-10-8
Race 2: Race 2 is a 6-furlong allowance optional claimer which finishes the Daily Double.
Notes: This race does not have much speed, and I feel like the 6 and 3 have great shots at winning this on a regular fast track, but if the race goes to a wet track, I believe the 3 and 2 have great chances of winning with excellent wet ratings and performance in the slop.
IF FAST: 6-3-2-4
IF WET: 3-2-6-4
Race 3: Race 3 is a 7-furlong optional claimer which finishes the pick 3.
Notes: The race has a little bit of speed and I think the 9 has a good shot on a fast track. I like the 3 horse but it has been inconsistent and seems to be inconsistent on the pace. It feels risky and a bad price to bet on at 5/2. (PARTIAL REFUND ON PICK 3 AND PICK 5 (SCRATCH 3))
IF FAST: 9-3-6-8
IF WET: 8-3-4-9
Race 4: Race 4 is a 1 1/16 mile race on the turf.
Notes: This race is a terrible race, and I strongly recommend you do not bet on this race, because there is a ridiculous amount of speed that fades, the only good horse is on the Eligibles list, but there is value in the 5 horse at 10-1 and has proven to be able to go long distances and could benefit on the crazy fast pace.
IF TURF: 5-12-3-4 (does not include eligibles)
IF DIRT: 10-4-1-11
NOTE: IF THERE ARE A LOT OF ELIGIBLES COMING IN, THERE COULD BE A NEW BET ADDED BEFORE POST TIME
NOTE: 1,5,12 are scratched please add a new bet CONSIDER 19.
Race 5: Race 5 is The Eight Belles Stakes (Grade 2) at 7 furlongs on the dirt that finishes the pick 5.
Notes: Tons of speed from the 4, 1, and 9 could lead to a duel that leads a close form the 3 horse at a good price. Lots of horses could win this race so it's a good race to spread your bets on some higher prices. 4 can dominate if the track goes sloppy.
IF FAST: 3-9-6-1
IF WET: 4-2-3-6
Race 6: Race 6 is The Edgewood Stakes (Grade 3) at 1 1/16 miles on the Turf.
NOTES: 1 is the class of the race, no one comes close in buyer figures, the turf will be yielding with rain, perfect for what the 1 wants. Other horses will close including 4 but will have no match to dominance from 1 at a short price of 3/5
IF YIELDING/REGULAR: 1-2-5-4
Race 7: Race 7 is the Alysheba Stakes (Grade 2) at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt.
NOTES: Good race, not much speed but 1 & 8 will close in the exacta, 6 and 2 have a chance if there was more speed in the race.
IF FAST: 1-8-2-6
IF WET: 1-2-6-8
Race 8: Race 8 is the LA Troienne Stakes (Grade 1) at 1 1/16 miles
NOTES: Tons of chalk in this race, but some good horses, bet against the inconsistent favorite 9 and bet the 2 or if it is sloppy let the 3 dominate. Try to pair up some longshots with the 3,2, and possibly 1 on the inside with a wire-loving Santana.
IF FAST: 2-1-3-9
SLOP: 3-2-9-4
Race 9: Race 9 is an allowance optional claimer at 7 furlongs.
NOTES: Difficult race to pick, not much speed in the race, a chance for some longshots. 1 would dominate if it was on dirt, but it will be sloppy and the 1 (not 1A) has an abysmal 280 rating on the slop track.
IF FAST: 1-7-2-4
SLOP: 7-2-4-5
Race 10: Race 10 is the Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes (Grade 2) at 5 1/2 furlongs on turf.
NOTES: Will not be washed off, speed duel between 6 and 1 but 6 has great buyers and wins by a couple lengths, 8 and 9 close for 3rd and fourth way behind 1 and 6, for a very chalky race.
IF YIELDING/REGULAR:6-1-8-9
Race 11: Race 11 is the Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) at 1 1/18 miles on the dirt
NOTES: HUGE longshot 6 will stalk the 7 and the out of form 4 will finish third, in a huge upset with 7 holding on for a second. 1 has a chance in the race and has proven to be good in the slop. 6 unknown on sloppy track but has a great pedigree to back it up and a great price.
IF SLOPPY: 6-7-4-1
IF FAST: 6-4-10-7
ENJOY THE RACES! EXPECT DERBY PREDICTIONS ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING!
Wednesday, May 1, 2019
BREAKING: Omaha Beach out of Derby + Chance of Rain on Oaks and Derby
Today, Trainer Richard Mandella scratched Omaha Beach (12) from the Kentucky Derby due to a respiratory issue, saying "We'll have to figure out a whole new gameplan" Omaha Beach was the Morning Line Favorite at 4-1 for the Derby.
View the full article here: https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Kentucky_Derby_2019_favorite_Omaha_Beach_to_scratch_123
Also, Weather Channel reports that rainstorms are very likely on Friday and Saturday which will mean that Saratoga Springs Racing will release predictions that will have Fast/Firm predictions and a sloppy/good track conditions that will also include a new Pick 6,5,4,3, and Double predictions with both fast and sloppy conditions. Stay tuned for more information starting Friday Morning.
View the full article here: https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Kentucky_Derby_2019_favorite_Omaha_Beach_to_scratch_123
Also, Weather Channel reports that rainstorms are very likely on Friday and Saturday which will mean that Saratoga Springs Racing will release predictions that will have Fast/Firm predictions and a sloppy/good track conditions that will also include a new Pick 6,5,4,3, and Double predictions with both fast and sloppy conditions. Stay tuned for more information starting Friday Morning.
Thursday, April 25, 2019
Kentucky Derby Day Announcement
Hello everyone, it has been about 1/2 a year since we last posted on Saratoga Springs Racing. We would like to announce that we will be doing an in-depth analysis of Kentucky Derby Day which will include special predictions. We will also possibly be doing Kentucky Oaks predictions and Races 9-11 predictions.
Early (if applicable) and late Pick 6
Late Pick 5
Late and Early (R1-4) Pick 4
Late and Early Pick 3
Daily Double
Double
Superfecta
Trifecta
Exacta
Win
These will be the bets that we will be given each race, and possibly more! Stay tuned on Oaks day for an update.
Early (if applicable) and late Pick 6
Late Pick 5
Late and Early (R1-4) Pick 4
Late and Early Pick 3
Daily Double
Double
Superfecta
Trifecta
Exacta
Win
These will be the bets that we will be given each race, and possibly more! Stay tuned on Oaks day for an update.
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