Apple Blossom Day Predictions (Race 7-10)

Welcome back to Saratoga Springs Racing, where today we will analyze race 7-10 of the Oaklawn card featuring the Count Fleet and Apple Blossom Handicap, featuring horses such as Whitmore, Bobby's Wicked One, Come Dancing, and Serengeti Empress. The card also includes some quality allowance races featuring Everfast and  Break Even.


Race 7: An interesting race at 1 mile, Everfast is an interesting horse taking a huge class drop, who performed poorly in premier 3 year old races last year. Did have a suprising 2nd place in the Preakness, before finishing 7th in the Belmont, 4th in the Haskell Invitational, and an abysmal 12th in the Travers. My issue with these other horses though are that they are unproven. The 1 horse has been improving, but will step up in class for the first time. I also do not like the rail run, as it will force the 1 to fall back. Everfast is the class of this race, and I am willing to take a chance on him to pull it out here in allowance territory.
PICK: 7-5



Race 8: Flagstaff is an interesting horse, but I do not like 6 furlongs, seems more like a 7 furlong horse. I also do not like having Rosario on Flagstaff, as he will probably pull him too far back, and won't be able to make a move. Bobby's Wicked One has had some phenomenal races at 6 furlongs, but has been inconsistent, there will probably be too much pace to win this race. Whitmore is the favorite at 5-2, and has run really well recently. Look for him to sit off the pace and make his move.
PICK: 9-2-3-11



Race 9: Meadow dance has come 2nd to some good horses, and will like the quick pace up front. Shanghai Tariff is an interesting horse, but I do not think that she can get it done with the pressing pace. Break Even had a rough start to 2020 with a 6th, after winning all but one of her starts in 2019. Break Even will take a big class drop in this race, and will hopefully will stay in control. I lack trust with Rosario on the ride, so it will be an interesting run.
PICK: 5-6-1-12



Race 10: Serengeti Empress has had an up and down career, but she looks locked and loaded for this match up in the Apple Blossom. She had a dominant run last time out, earning a career high Beyer. Come Dancing will try to match the speed of Serengeti Empress, but being the first race of 2020, she will struggle to get a good close. Ce Ce also looks to overcome a poor post position, but a lack of speed other than Serengeti Empress and Cookie Dough will prevent any deep close on the far outside. It will require a great ride on Ce Ce to have a chance in this one. Ollie's Candy has been consistent, and can stay close enough to the pace to make a move, only concern will be if she gets stuck in traffic. This race will come down to the pace set by Serengeti Empress and Cookie Dough. 
PICK: 11-4-1-14-10