The Arkansas Derby will be run in 2 divisions, with the same amount of Kentucky Derby points occurring this September. Highlighting these races includes Wells Bayou, Charlatan, Nadal, and Storm the Court. The Saturday race card also features the Oaklawn Handicap which features Tacitus and By My Standards. The incredible race card also features some solid allowance races including horses such as Candy Tycoon (2nd in this years Fountain of Youth) and Endorsed (4th in last year's Travers Stakes).
Note: We will be doing complete predictions and analysis for the Arkansas Derby this Saturday. Stay tuned for more details to come!
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
Monday, April 27, 2020
Mia Mischief Dominates + Long Weekend Secures the Bachelor
Mia Mischief took the Carousel Stakes, beating out Amy's Challenge, and defeating the favorite Bellafina. Mia Mischief took the outside position and pulled away for a dominant victory, showing how powerful of a horse she can be. Bellafina struggled to handle the early pace, as she had to go from the back to constenst the pace, and by then she had been used up. Mia Mischief stayed behind Amy's Challenge in a hot pace, and easily won the race. Amy's Challenge finished in second, Lady Suebee finished 3rd, and Bellafina faded to 4th.
From Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort
In the other stakes race, Long Weekend pulled away in the Bachelor to beat out the heavy favorite Eight Rings in a solid performance. Long Weekend lead throughout the whole race with quick fractions and pulled away. Eight Rings, the 4-5 favorite, faded to 5th in a 6 horse race. He tried to contest the early pace and faded, while Long Weekend easily pulled away. Eight Rings was once a prominent Kentucky Derby contender, but after disappointing results, the future looks unclear for this Bob Baffert colt. Echo Town finished 2nd, Lykan finished 3rd, and Little Menace finished 4th.
In the other stakes race, Long Weekend pulled away in the Bachelor to beat out the heavy favorite Eight Rings in a solid performance. Long Weekend lead throughout the whole race with quick fractions and pulled away. Eight Rings, the 4-5 favorite, faded to 5th in a 6 horse race. He tried to contest the early pace and faded, while Long Weekend easily pulled away. Eight Rings was once a prominent Kentucky Derby contender, but after disappointing results, the future looks unclear for this Bob Baffert colt. Echo Town finished 2nd, Lykan finished 3rd, and Little Menace finished 4th.
Saturday, April 25, 2020
Mia Mischief takes on Bellafina + Eight Rings Returns in Oaklawn Card
Today, Mia Mischief will take on Bellafina in the Carousel Stakes at Oaklawn. Bellafina drew the inside post position and will sit 8-5 on the morning line, with a 2nd in last years Fillies and Mares sprint. She will step down in class today after a recent second, to take on Mia Mischief, who draws the outside post position. She has run consistently, and is coming off 2 straight wins. She is 9-2 on the morning line. Finishing off the race is the winner of the Spring Fever Stakes, Midnight Fantasy, and Amy's Challenge.
Also running today is Eight Rings, in the Bachelor Stakes. Last year, Eight Rings ran impressively in his maiden, before loosing the jockey in the Del Mar Furturity. Coming back, he dominated in the American Pharaoh. He then came into the Breeders Cup Juvenille to challenge Dennis' Moment, but the race blew up, and Storm the Court dominated the race, and Eight Rings faded. At one point, many people thought that Eight Rings could win the Kentucky Derby. Now, he comes back to the Bachelor, looking to cut back in distance. His biggest competition will be Long Weekend, who is fresh off a impressive win in the Gazebo.
Also running today is Eight Rings, in the Bachelor Stakes. Last year, Eight Rings ran impressively in his maiden, before loosing the jockey in the Del Mar Furturity. Coming back, he dominated in the American Pharaoh. He then came into the Breeders Cup Juvenille to challenge Dennis' Moment, but the race blew up, and Storm the Court dominated the race, and Eight Rings faded. At one point, many people thought that Eight Rings could win the Kentucky Derby. Now, he comes back to the Bachelor, looking to cut back in distance. His biggest competition will be Long Weekend, who is fresh off a impressive win in the Gazebo.
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
Whitmore Dominates the Count Fleet Again
Whitmore dominated Saturday's Count Fleet Handicap at Oaklawn Park, closing off the hot pace and breezed by the other horses, such as Bobby's Wicked One. Whitmore has won the Count Fleet numerous times, and will now target the Breeders Cup Sprint later in the year. Last year, Whitmore finished 3rd in the Breeders Cup Sprint. This year, he has won 3 straight races in a row. Flagstaff finished the race in second on a deep close, and longshot Manny Wah finished in 3rd. Nitrous also finished the race on a deep close in 4th. Disappointingly, Hidden Scroll finished 7th after trying to contest the quick pace set by Bobby's Wicked One. Bobby's Wicked One finished in 11th.
Monday, April 20, 2020
Ce Ce Edges out Ollies Candy for the Apple Blossom
On Saturday, Ce Ce edged out Ollie's Candy to win the Apple Blossom handicap. Throughout the race, Ollie's Candy and Cookie Dough set the pace, while Serengeti Empress kept close. Ce Ce closed into a hot pace to barely nose out Ollie's Candy. Serengeti Empress did not show up and faded, as she could not set the early pace and dominate. Similarly, Come Dancing could not handle the hot pace, and faded. Ce Ce will now have hopes for the Breeders Cup later in the year, as she is a rising star, so will Ollie's Candy, who has been running consistently behind some of the best female horses in North America. Point of Honor finished the race in 3rd, and Street Band filled the superfecta in fourth.
Credit: Oaklawn Park
Sunday, April 19, 2020
MASSIVE Gulfstream Pick 6 Carryover Worth Millions with Predictions & Bet
At Gulfstream Park, an estimated 10 million dollars will be poured into the Rainbow six pool from races 6-11. For this massive pick 6 carryover, we will be giving in depth predictions and a pick 6 constructed bet that you can use or alter to your liking. The first leg of the rainbow six begins at 3:23 PM EST. Enjoy the races!
Race 6: The first race of the card features a lot of speed on the turf, which could be a good setup for some of these horses running. Bareeqa is the favorite, but is going to need a blazing pace to close into. Even though the Beyers seem reasonably high, she just has not been performing up to the expectations, and the setup that she has been getting. Scatnap has been running some really solid races and will likely sit behind the early pacemakers. Last time out, she had to go to the front being in the 10th post position, and obviously did not want to be the speed, as she ran very slow fractions. Even after being forced into this, she only finished 4th by 1 length. She has been running consistently on turf, and likes this distance very well (8 for 10 in the money, 6 for 11 in the money running at Gulfstream). Britesideoftheroad has run some decent races, and should be considered, as she can either run towards the back of the field, or run towards the front based on what fits her best. Not necessarily the horse that could win, but is worth putting in as a 3rd or 4th choice. Lookinlikeaqueen has run decent races on the turf, and will likely be up with the early pacemakers, Katieleigh, Sister Gema, and Dance Till Dawn. Could make a move around the turn and steal the race, with good odds at 6-1 (9 for 13 in the money at Gulfstream, 7 for 10 in the money running at this distance).
PICK: 5-10-3-4
Race 7: Tiz Possible Dear is the favorite of this race, but I do not see her winning this race. This is obviously not the right distance for her to be running at, and she just has not been running like she used to. She has had 2 poor races in a row, and she ran less than 3 weeks ago, finishing a distant fourth. Brookes All Mine has run consistently and has run well at Gulfstream (5 for 6 in the money with 2 wins). She will likely be up on the pace, and with a lack of speed in this race, she has the potential to wire the race. Grace's Drama has run well, but she is never close enough to win the race. She has consistently finished 3rd distantly, and her lack of early speed will prevent her from winning this race. Put Position has been running consistently stalking the pace, and with a lack of pace, she will be close up, and could potentially make a move to challenge Brookes All Mine.
PICK: 4-9-6-2
Race 8: No Word ran a great race first time out, and then ran respectable in the Pilgrim last year. The question is if he is ready to run off the layoff. Patrol is interesting, but turf might not be the right angle (Mark Casse turf to dirt is 0.12). Pleasecallmeback is a longshot who has run close races every signal time against great horses. Last time out, he ran a 9th by only 5 lengths to Decorated Invader. This seems to be a good race for him, and he will get a better post. Street Ready is similar to Pleasecallmeback, and ran 7th in the same stakes race, by only three lengths. If you look at just his races on turf, they are very solid races, and he has run against some good horses.This seems like a good fit, and he is used to the post. Mystic Lancelot could either do very well in this race, or very poorly, because this race does not have a tremendous amount of speed, which could force Mystic Lancelot to set the early pace. He has run well, but not great, which does not give me a strong feeling about this horse; still worth considering.
PICK: 11-9-5-4
Race 9: Gran Greyfrost and Blakey come into this race as the only horses who show some bit of early speed. This could lead to the favorite, Yes I See, not getting the proper pace to close into. Even with fast paces, Yes I See has struggled to close in when necessary. Other horses such as Il Faraone have closed on blazing paces, but will not get the proper pace to win; this is the same case for Trappezoid. The 7 has enough tactical speed to stay up with the rest of the horses, and Dexter Road might also show some early speed.
PICK: 7-6-8-1
Race 10: Bering Strait seems to have good enough tactical speed to win this race. There is barely any pace in this race, which could be worrying, considering that she could burn herself out early on. Similarly, Cariba has enough tactical speed to stay close on the slow pace and pounce. All Quality is a strange horse, but she might be able to get it done with the right trip. In 4th place, either Seranitsa or Taken Ten could finish in 4th, based on if you think that speed will dominate, or if the closers could fill up the board. Seranitsa will look to set the early pace.
PICK: 8-6-3-4/12
Race 11: Now we reach the final race of the pick 6. This race is a maiden special weight at 1 mile on the turf. Renata seems to be the obvious choice here, as she had a good effort closing at 1 mile, and nearly won the race. The times were also fairly modest, which furthers her resume. The 2 could take advantage of a very slow field, and could possibly wire the race. Royal Mandate could also do something similar to Renata and close in late, and also Makisupa might get a better ride this time out. Consider spreading across multiple horses in this race.
PICK: 4-2-10-11
Pick 6 Bet: 5/10/3 - 4/9 - 11/9/5/4 - 7/6/8/1 - 4/2/10/11 - 4/2
COST: $76.80 (10 cent bet)
Race 6: The first race of the card features a lot of speed on the turf, which could be a good setup for some of these horses running. Bareeqa is the favorite, but is going to need a blazing pace to close into. Even though the Beyers seem reasonably high, she just has not been performing up to the expectations, and the setup that she has been getting. Scatnap has been running some really solid races and will likely sit behind the early pacemakers. Last time out, she had to go to the front being in the 10th post position, and obviously did not want to be the speed, as she ran very slow fractions. Even after being forced into this, she only finished 4th by 1 length. She has been running consistently on turf, and likes this distance very well (8 for 10 in the money, 6 for 11 in the money running at Gulfstream). Britesideoftheroad has run some decent races, and should be considered, as she can either run towards the back of the field, or run towards the front based on what fits her best. Not necessarily the horse that could win, but is worth putting in as a 3rd or 4th choice. Lookinlikeaqueen has run decent races on the turf, and will likely be up with the early pacemakers, Katieleigh, Sister Gema, and Dance Till Dawn. Could make a move around the turn and steal the race, with good odds at 6-1 (9 for 13 in the money at Gulfstream, 7 for 10 in the money running at this distance).
PICK: 5-10-3-4
Race 7: Tiz Possible Dear is the favorite of this race, but I do not see her winning this race. This is obviously not the right distance for her to be running at, and she just has not been running like she used to. She has had 2 poor races in a row, and she ran less than 3 weeks ago, finishing a distant fourth. Brookes All Mine has run consistently and has run well at Gulfstream (5 for 6 in the money with 2 wins). She will likely be up on the pace, and with a lack of speed in this race, she has the potential to wire the race. Grace's Drama has run well, but she is never close enough to win the race. She has consistently finished 3rd distantly, and her lack of early speed will prevent her from winning this race. Put Position has been running consistently stalking the pace, and with a lack of pace, she will be close up, and could potentially make a move to challenge Brookes All Mine.
PICK: 4-9-6-2
Race 8: No Word ran a great race first time out, and then ran respectable in the Pilgrim last year. The question is if he is ready to run off the layoff. Patrol is interesting, but turf might not be the right angle (Mark Casse turf to dirt is 0.12). Pleasecallmeback is a longshot who has run close races every signal time against great horses. Last time out, he ran a 9th by only 5 lengths to Decorated Invader. This seems to be a good race for him, and he will get a better post. Street Ready is similar to Pleasecallmeback, and ran 7th in the same stakes race, by only three lengths. If you look at just his races on turf, they are very solid races, and he has run against some good horses.This seems like a good fit, and he is used to the post. Mystic Lancelot could either do very well in this race, or very poorly, because this race does not have a tremendous amount of speed, which could force Mystic Lancelot to set the early pace. He has run well, but not great, which does not give me a strong feeling about this horse; still worth considering.
PICK: 11-9-5-4
Race 9: Gran Greyfrost and Blakey come into this race as the only horses who show some bit of early speed. This could lead to the favorite, Yes I See, not getting the proper pace to close into. Even with fast paces, Yes I See has struggled to close in when necessary. Other horses such as Il Faraone have closed on blazing paces, but will not get the proper pace to win; this is the same case for Trappezoid. The 7 has enough tactical speed to stay up with the rest of the horses, and Dexter Road might also show some early speed.
PICK: 7-6-8-1
Race 10: Bering Strait seems to have good enough tactical speed to win this race. There is barely any pace in this race, which could be worrying, considering that she could burn herself out early on. Similarly, Cariba has enough tactical speed to stay close on the slow pace and pounce. All Quality is a strange horse, but she might be able to get it done with the right trip. In 4th place, either Seranitsa or Taken Ten could finish in 4th, based on if you think that speed will dominate, or if the closers could fill up the board. Seranitsa will look to set the early pace.
PICK: 8-6-3-4/12
Race 11: Now we reach the final race of the pick 6. This race is a maiden special weight at 1 mile on the turf. Renata seems to be the obvious choice here, as she had a good effort closing at 1 mile, and nearly won the race. The times were also fairly modest, which furthers her resume. The 2 could take advantage of a very slow field, and could possibly wire the race. Royal Mandate could also do something similar to Renata and close in late, and also Makisupa might get a better ride this time out. Consider spreading across multiple horses in this race.
PICK: 4-2-10-11
Pick 6 Bet: 5/10/3 - 4/9 - 11/9/5/4 - 7/6/8/1 - 4/2/10/11 - 4/2
COST: $76.80 (10 cent bet)
Saturday, April 18, 2020
Apple Blossom Day Predictions (Race 7-10)
Welcome back to Saratoga Springs Racing, where today we will analyze race 7-10 of the Oaklawn card featuring the Count Fleet and Apple Blossom Handicap, featuring horses such as Whitmore, Bobby's Wicked One, Come Dancing, and Serengeti Empress. The card also includes some quality allowance races featuring Everfast and Break Even.
Race 7: An interesting race at 1 mile, Everfast is an interesting horse taking a huge class drop, who performed poorly in premier 3 year old races last year. Did have a suprising 2nd place in the Preakness, before finishing 7th in the Belmont, 4th in the Haskell Invitational, and an abysmal 12th in the Travers. My issue with these other horses though are that they are unproven. The 1 horse has been improving, but will step up in class for the first time. I also do not like the rail run, as it will force the 1 to fall back. Everfast is the class of this race, and I am willing to take a chance on him to pull it out here in allowance territory.
PICK: 7-5
Race 8: Flagstaff is an interesting horse, but I do not like 6 furlongs, seems more like a 7 furlong horse. I also do not like having Rosario on Flagstaff, as he will probably pull him too far back, and won't be able to make a move. Bobby's Wicked One has had some phenomenal races at 6 furlongs, but has been inconsistent, there will probably be too much pace to win this race. Whitmore is the favorite at 5-2, and has run really well recently. Look for him to sit off the pace and make his move.
PICK: 9-2-3-11
Race 9: Meadow dance has come 2nd to some good horses, and will like the quick pace up front. Shanghai Tariff is an interesting horse, but I do not think that she can get it done with the pressing pace. Break Even had a rough start to 2020 with a 6th, after winning all but one of her starts in 2019. Break Even will take a big class drop in this race, and will hopefully will stay in control. I lack trust with Rosario on the ride, so it will be an interesting run.
PICK: 5-6-1-12
Race 10: Serengeti Empress has had an up and down career, but she looks locked and loaded for this match up in the Apple Blossom. She had a dominant run last time out, earning a career high Beyer. Come Dancing will try to match the speed of Serengeti Empress, but being the first race of 2020, she will struggle to get a good close. Ce Ce also looks to overcome a poor post position, but a lack of speed other than Serengeti Empress and Cookie Dough will prevent any deep close on the far outside. It will require a great ride on Ce Ce to have a chance in this one. Ollie's Candy has been consistent, and can stay close enough to the pace to make a move, only concern will be if she gets stuck in traffic. This race will come down to the pace set by Serengeti Empress and Cookie Dough.
PICK: 11-4-1-14-10
Race 7: An interesting race at 1 mile, Everfast is an interesting horse taking a huge class drop, who performed poorly in premier 3 year old races last year. Did have a suprising 2nd place in the Preakness, before finishing 7th in the Belmont, 4th in the Haskell Invitational, and an abysmal 12th in the Travers. My issue with these other horses though are that they are unproven. The 1 horse has been improving, but will step up in class for the first time. I also do not like the rail run, as it will force the 1 to fall back. Everfast is the class of this race, and I am willing to take a chance on him to pull it out here in allowance territory.
PICK: 7-5
Race 8: Flagstaff is an interesting horse, but I do not like 6 furlongs, seems more like a 7 furlong horse. I also do not like having Rosario on Flagstaff, as he will probably pull him too far back, and won't be able to make a move. Bobby's Wicked One has had some phenomenal races at 6 furlongs, but has been inconsistent, there will probably be too much pace to win this race. Whitmore is the favorite at 5-2, and has run really well recently. Look for him to sit off the pace and make his move.
PICK: 9-2-3-11
Race 9: Meadow dance has come 2nd to some good horses, and will like the quick pace up front. Shanghai Tariff is an interesting horse, but I do not think that she can get it done with the pressing pace. Break Even had a rough start to 2020 with a 6th, after winning all but one of her starts in 2019. Break Even will take a big class drop in this race, and will hopefully will stay in control. I lack trust with Rosario on the ride, so it will be an interesting run.
PICK: 5-6-1-12
Race 10: Serengeti Empress has had an up and down career, but she looks locked and loaded for this match up in the Apple Blossom. She had a dominant run last time out, earning a career high Beyer. Come Dancing will try to match the speed of Serengeti Empress, but being the first race of 2020, she will struggle to get a good close. Ce Ce also looks to overcome a poor post position, but a lack of speed other than Serengeti Empress and Cookie Dough will prevent any deep close on the far outside. It will require a great ride on Ce Ce to have a chance in this one. Ollie's Candy has been consistent, and can stay close enough to the pace to make a move, only concern will be if she gets stuck in traffic. This race will come down to the pace set by Serengeti Empress and Cookie Dough.
PICK: 11-4-1-14-10
Friday, April 17, 2020
Whitmore the Favorite in Count Fleet
On Saturday, in addition to the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park, the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) will also be ran at 6 furlongs on the dirt. In the field of 11 is Flagstaff, an improving horse, with solid Beyer figures. The inconsistent but talented Bobby's Wicked One is also running in this race, hoping to increase his win streak. An interesting horse in this race is Hidden Scroll, who had an amazing debut last year before disappointing results in the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth Stakes. After a disappointing allowance finish at the end of 2019, Hidden Scroll came back to earn a 102 Beyer in an allowance race in March. The favorite in the Count Fleet is Whitmore who has had a strong start to his 2020 campaign. He is by far the most experienced horse in this race, and will be a strong contender, with his solid consistency and class.
We will be doing Oaklawn Park picks from race 7-10, with analysis for the Count Fleet and Apple Blossom Handicap.
We will be doing Oaklawn Park picks from race 7-10, with analysis for the Count Fleet and Apple Blossom Handicap.
Thursday, April 16, 2020
Serengeti Empress Looks to Beat Talented Field in Apple Blossom
On Saturday, Trainer Thomas Amoss will look to take Serengeti Empress into the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) at Oaklawn. In the Apple Blossom, resides a talented field including Ce Ce and Come Dancing. Serengeti Empress has had a many ups and downs throughout her career. After a dreadful performance in the Coalition, she came back with a third in the Breeders Cup Distaff, and followed it up with a 2nd and 1st, earning a career high 101 Beyer rating. She seems to be fit and ready for the Apple Blossom, but she faces some steep competition. Ce Ce is an up and coming horse who won the Beholder Mile at Santa Anita. She had also finished 4th in the Acorn behind Serengeti Empress last year. The favorite in this race is Come Dancing, who won the Ballerina Stakes at Saratoga last summer. She also recorded an eye-catching 114 Beyer in the Humana Distaff. Will she come back impressively in her 2020 debut, or will the hiccups we saw in the Breeders Cup Female Sprint affect her? Will Serengeti Empress be able to perform in a mode we saw during the Kentucky Oaks, wire to wire, or will she bomb the race? It looks like Serengeti Empress is ready, and when she is ready, she can run an amazing race.
Credit: NBC Sports
Tuesday, April 14, 2020
Maximum Security Continues to be Overshadowed in Investigation
Last May, Maximum Security crossed the wire, and it seemed like he was on his way to greatness. Minutes later, he was taken off as the winner, replaced by a huge longshot, and put in 17th. After a hiccup in the Pegasus, he won the Haskell, Bold Ruler, and the Cigar Mile in 2019. In 2020, former trainer Jason Servis wanted him to run in the first running of the Saudi Cup, with a purse worth 20 million dollars. Maximum Security dominated the race, winning the race easily. He was finally in greatness once again, until Jason Servis was indicted on charges related to "administer adulterated or misbranded drugs that were administered to racehorses." Once again, Maximum Security was questioned if he was really the great racehorse he was. Did he deserve every win with the effort that he put in, the resilience he put in. And, how long will this great racehorse be put in the dark, when he is one of the most talented horses of the decade. A great due of this is because of Jason Servis pulling Maximum Security out of the Preakness, Belmont, and Travers. Was it really due to injury concerns? Or were there other factors involved. We might never know, but Maximum Security will have a lot of proving to do in his 4 year old campaign. This could also potentially cost Gary and Mary West millions in studding Maximum Security. Time will tell if Maximum Security is truly the amazing racehorse we expected at the Derby.
Monday, April 13, 2020
Massive Oaklawn Stakes Upset & MASSIVE Pick 5 at Gulfstream
On Saturday, Mr. Big News pulled off a massive upset in the Oaklawn Stakes at 46-1. The race was the second stakes race on the card on Saturday, which was after the Oaklawn Mile. The favorite Thousand Words had early trouble and could never get into contention, finishing in 12th. Farmington Rode finished in 2nd and Taishan finished 3rd. All three horses will have automatic entry into the Arkansas Derby on May 2, and Mr. Big News will have automatic entry into the Preakness.
At Gulfstream on Saturday, a bettor won over $500,000 in a massive Pick 5 bet that included a 73-1 upset and a 34-1 upset. The payout was the 5th largest in North American History on a 50 cent Pick 5 bet.
At Gulfstream on Saturday, a bettor won over $500,000 in a massive Pick 5 bet that included a 73-1 upset and a 34-1 upset. The payout was the 5th largest in North American History on a 50 cent Pick 5 bet.
Sunday, April 12, 2020
Tom's d'Etat Starts Year with win in Oaklawn Mile
Tom's d'Etat won the Oaklawn Mile on Saturday evening to start of his 7 year old season. He won the race trailing throughout, and on the wet track, he went right by Improbable to win the race. Improbable finished the race in 2nd, and Bankit finished the race 3rd. Mr. Money had a poor showing in this race, never getting involved, and eventually faltered out of contention.
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Saturday Oaklawn Park Picks- What will Happen in the Oaklawn Mile?
Welcome back to Saratoga Springs Racing for this great Saturday card at Oaklawn Park. The card features two stakes races and several optional claiming races, with some great horses. The feature race is the Oaklawn Mile featuring Tom's d'Etat and Improbable. Also in the race is Mr. Money, who ran in the Breeders cup last year. We will be doing full analysis and predicitons for every race on the card.
Race 1: Not a great race, few seem fit for this race. 7, CP Quality looks decent. Will like the quick pace between the 12, 1, and 2. Not much quality in this race other than those horses. Would avoid this race, or just go straight bet on the 7.
PICK: 7-12
Race 2: 8, Miss Imperial is the class of the race. Has run in some solid races, and has been running well. The 2 horse, Enjay's Brass has been getting better each race off the first claim, and I expect a good run here with the quick pace. Post position is a little worrying, might go up and challenge the front. 3 horse might do something, but is just at the same class level as other horses in this race, probably is going to look to challenge the pace.
PICK: 8-2-11-3
Race 3: Oak Room is an interesting horse, with pretty solid, improving workouts. Into Mischief is a very hot sire and this was a broodmare horse. Joe Talamo and trainer dirt angle (0.26) seem to be a good fit for this horse. 8 and 9 horse have run in a race before, which makes them likely to do well. They both ran well in their first race, but I hate Rosario on the 8 horse, and he will likely either take him to the way back or to the front of the race, and give him no chance of winning, probably will close in for third. 6 horse has also been improving every race, probably will finish in top 4, or at least contest the pace.
PICK: 3-9-8-6
Race 4: The first quality race of the day at a mile on the dirt. Cleon Jones has run consistently, and has run well, and 1 mile seems to be the ideal distance. Will like the quick pace given to him, and will do well. Rail might be an issue for Cleon Jones though, as he has never run on the rail in the past. The 4 horse, Scabbard has run in some good races, but has never delivered. Scabbard does not seem to be in the right form, but I think he can squeeze out a second place in this race. I do not like the 2, Shooters Short, as he got away with a moderately fast pace for a 92 Beyer in a Maiden Special Weight. His morning line of 7-2 is purely on the fact that he ran well in two Maidens. He is unproven, and will get burned out by the strong closers. 5 is a good horse, but not great, and will probably contest the pace and fade to fourth. The biggest risk is 3rd place, Fort McHenry, the famous1.1 million dollar horse who has had poor results. However, I think that he can turn it around in this race, and he still has potential to improve. He did not run bad races at 1 mile, they just were not great, but they will be good enough to hold on for third.
PICK: 1-4-9-5
Race 5: 6 furlong maiden race. 2 is probably going to try and set the pace, and will fade to third. I like the 6 horse, Casual. Casual has been training well, and has the great sire, Curlin. Casual also has a great trainer-jockey combination, that will work well at this distance. The 11 horse, Silverbella also looks good, and closed well on a sloppy surface. Silverbella will appreciate the dry track today at Oaklawn.
PICK: 6-11-2
Race 6: Captain Bombastic is by far the best horse in this race, and I am not sure if there is a experienced horse to pair him with. I would single 2, Captain Bombastic and then if you want to throw in a mix of horses with him you could, but many of these horses are unproven and have succeeded at shorter distances, but can they last the mile?
PICK: 2
Race 7: 11 horse, Earner confuses me, I do not understand what would signal that this horse would be a turf router. The pedigree signals long dirt, but not necessarily turf. Very risky choice, as he has not trained on turf either. 6, Absolute Unit, has been improving every race, and seems to like this distance decently. 1, Pit Boss has great training numbers and solid pedigree. Might want to do an exacts with the 1 and 6 horses, who seem to be viable contenders in this race.
PICK: 6-1-11
Race 8: Number 3, Mo Gotcha is taking a huge class drop and has been running well. I think that this race will suit him well, and he will enjoy this race. Other horses to consider are the 6, Starship Zeus, who is taking a huge class drop and has run well at this distance, with good Beyer numbers. Proverb, number 9, is going to probably be the favorite in this race, but I worry that Rosario will do something stupid and will lead to him loosing the race. 11 likes this distance decently, but has a bad post position, and there are better choices at better prices.
PICK: 3-6-9-11
Race 9: Tom's d'Etat will look to continue his winning streak in the Oaklawn Mile at 1 mile. His top two competitors are Mr. Money and Improbable, who I believe will not finish in the top 3. I think that Improbable is overrated and has been running quite poorly, even in class drops, and I do not like his current form. Mr. Money is just flat out poor at this distance, except for one race. Now, if you ignore those two horses, who would you put with Tom's d'Etat? Well, I like Bankit, a 15-1 long shot, who runs well at this distance, and can hopefully close into this pace. This will be the hardest race of his career, but he seems to be in form. I also like the 4 horse, Pioneer Spirit, who is definitely in form for this race, and has been running very well at this distance with high Beyer figures.
PICK: 3-8-4-2-14-10 (Possible exacta or trifecta pairings for this race, since you have the potential to hit a longshot with the 4, 8, or 10 horse).
Race 10: No analysis available for this race.
Race 11: Now we reach the Oaklawn Stakes, for many of last years promising 2 year old horses, who are very solid, but not good enough to contend for the Kentucky Derby. Thousand Words has run very well, and is familiar with this distance. I also like the 6 horse to pair him with, as Shoplifted is a longshot, who has run well, but not great. Shoplifted is a $800,000 Into Mischief son, who won the Songbird Mile, and has run well in his other races, finishing 2nd in last year's Hopeful (G1).
PICK: 4-6
Race 12: No analysis available for this race.
Race 1: Not a great race, few seem fit for this race. 7, CP Quality looks decent. Will like the quick pace between the 12, 1, and 2. Not much quality in this race other than those horses. Would avoid this race, or just go straight bet on the 7.
PICK: 7-12
Race 2: 8, Miss Imperial is the class of the race. Has run in some solid races, and has been running well. The 2 horse, Enjay's Brass has been getting better each race off the first claim, and I expect a good run here with the quick pace. Post position is a little worrying, might go up and challenge the front. 3 horse might do something, but is just at the same class level as other horses in this race, probably is going to look to challenge the pace.
PICK: 8-2-11-3
Race 3: Oak Room is an interesting horse, with pretty solid, improving workouts. Into Mischief is a very hot sire and this was a broodmare horse. Joe Talamo and trainer dirt angle (0.26) seem to be a good fit for this horse. 8 and 9 horse have run in a race before, which makes them likely to do well. They both ran well in their first race, but I hate Rosario on the 8 horse, and he will likely either take him to the way back or to the front of the race, and give him no chance of winning, probably will close in for third. 6 horse has also been improving every race, probably will finish in top 4, or at least contest the pace.
PICK: 3-9-8-6
Race 4: The first quality race of the day at a mile on the dirt. Cleon Jones has run consistently, and has run well, and 1 mile seems to be the ideal distance. Will like the quick pace given to him, and will do well. Rail might be an issue for Cleon Jones though, as he has never run on the rail in the past. The 4 horse, Scabbard has run in some good races, but has never delivered. Scabbard does not seem to be in the right form, but I think he can squeeze out a second place in this race. I do not like the 2, Shooters Short, as he got away with a moderately fast pace for a 92 Beyer in a Maiden Special Weight. His morning line of 7-2 is purely on the fact that he ran well in two Maidens. He is unproven, and will get burned out by the strong closers. 5 is a good horse, but not great, and will probably contest the pace and fade to fourth. The biggest risk is 3rd place, Fort McHenry, the famous1.1 million dollar horse who has had poor results. However, I think that he can turn it around in this race, and he still has potential to improve. He did not run bad races at 1 mile, they just were not great, but they will be good enough to hold on for third.
PICK: 1-4-9-5
Race 5: 6 furlong maiden race. 2 is probably going to try and set the pace, and will fade to third. I like the 6 horse, Casual. Casual has been training well, and has the great sire, Curlin. Casual also has a great trainer-jockey combination, that will work well at this distance. The 11 horse, Silverbella also looks good, and closed well on a sloppy surface. Silverbella will appreciate the dry track today at Oaklawn.
PICK: 6-11-2
Race 6: Captain Bombastic is by far the best horse in this race, and I am not sure if there is a experienced horse to pair him with. I would single 2, Captain Bombastic and then if you want to throw in a mix of horses with him you could, but many of these horses are unproven and have succeeded at shorter distances, but can they last the mile?
PICK: 2
Race 7: 11 horse, Earner confuses me, I do not understand what would signal that this horse would be a turf router. The pedigree signals long dirt, but not necessarily turf. Very risky choice, as he has not trained on turf either. 6, Absolute Unit, has been improving every race, and seems to like this distance decently. 1, Pit Boss has great training numbers and solid pedigree. Might want to do an exacts with the 1 and 6 horses, who seem to be viable contenders in this race.
PICK: 6-1-11
Race 8: Number 3, Mo Gotcha is taking a huge class drop and has been running well. I think that this race will suit him well, and he will enjoy this race. Other horses to consider are the 6, Starship Zeus, who is taking a huge class drop and has run well at this distance, with good Beyer numbers. Proverb, number 9, is going to probably be the favorite in this race, but I worry that Rosario will do something stupid and will lead to him loosing the race. 11 likes this distance decently, but has a bad post position, and there are better choices at better prices.
PICK: 3-6-9-11
Race 9: Tom's d'Etat will look to continue his winning streak in the Oaklawn Mile at 1 mile. His top two competitors are Mr. Money and Improbable, who I believe will not finish in the top 3. I think that Improbable is overrated and has been running quite poorly, even in class drops, and I do not like his current form. Mr. Money is just flat out poor at this distance, except for one race. Now, if you ignore those two horses, who would you put with Tom's d'Etat? Well, I like Bankit, a 15-1 long shot, who runs well at this distance, and can hopefully close into this pace. This will be the hardest race of his career, but he seems to be in form. I also like the 4 horse, Pioneer Spirit, who is definitely in form for this race, and has been running very well at this distance with high Beyer figures.
PICK: 3-8-4-2-14-10 (Possible exacta or trifecta pairings for this race, since you have the potential to hit a longshot with the 4, 8, or 10 horse).
Race 10: No analysis available for this race.
Race 11: Now we reach the Oaklawn Stakes, for many of last years promising 2 year old horses, who are very solid, but not good enough to contend for the Kentucky Derby. Thousand Words has run very well, and is familiar with this distance. I also like the 6 horse to pair him with, as Shoplifted is a longshot, who has run well, but not great. Shoplifted is a $800,000 Into Mischief son, who won the Songbird Mile, and has run well in his other races, finishing 2nd in last year's Hopeful (G1).
PICK: 4-6
Race 12: No analysis available for this race.
Friday, April 10, 2020
KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS- Ete Indien
Welcome back to Kentucky Derby Contenders on Saratoga Springs Racing. Today, we will look into 3rd place in the standings, Ete Indien. On Saturday, we will be posting Oaklawn park predictions, and on Sunday, we will either do Gulfstream park picks or we will do another Derby Contender Profile. Let us know your preference.
Ete Indien is a Summer Front son who was the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and was the runner up in the Holy Bull (G3). Ete Indien most recently finished 3rd in the Florida Derby (G1) behind potential Derby favorite, Tiz the Law. Ete Indien has won over $350,000 in purse money in his career. Now, let's watch some of his races from his career.
I thought that Ete Indien ran respectable in this race, but nothing special. He had a bad post (12) on the outside, which forced him to use quite a bit of energy to avoid going super wide around the turn. I also thought he made his move a bit too early, and could have waited a bit longer to challenge Tiz the Law. In the Holy Bull, Ete Indien again ran well, but he was no match for Tiz the Law, finishing second place. He ran well, under some solid fractions, and he has been running close to the best horse in the entire field by far. We will ignore the Dixiana Bourbon Stakes for Ete Indien, because this was a turf race, and he obviously runs a lot better on dirt.
This race was no joke, as some very solid horses such as As Seen on TV and Dennis' Moment were running in this race. It was a very impressive win, wire to wire, in a tough post position. Ete Indien just put these horses away easily, which leads me to believe that he is the second best horse in the Derby, behind Tiz the Law. However, I think that there is a chance that Ete Indien could run away with the Derby. For many years now, speed has dominated the derby, Maximum Security should have won the Derby (except for a ridiculous disqualification), American Pharaoh won the derby very close up on the pace. Nyquist won the derby very close up on the pace, and so did Always Dreaming. Ete Indien could also possibly get sloppy conditions, which could help him go wire to wire. Realistically though, he will probably fade to second or third, just like he did when he faced Tiz the Law in the past. I would strongly consider to play him though in a trifecta or exacta, as he is one of the best horses in the races, and might be considered the best horse if Tiz the Law did not exist.
Ete Indien is a Summer Front son who was the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and was the runner up in the Holy Bull (G3). Ete Indien most recently finished 3rd in the Florida Derby (G1) behind potential Derby favorite, Tiz the Law. Ete Indien has won over $350,000 in purse money in his career. Now, let's watch some of his races from his career.
I thought that Ete Indien ran respectable in this race, but nothing special. He had a bad post (12) on the outside, which forced him to use quite a bit of energy to avoid going super wide around the turn. I also thought he made his move a bit too early, and could have waited a bit longer to challenge Tiz the Law. In the Holy Bull, Ete Indien again ran well, but he was no match for Tiz the Law, finishing second place. He ran well, under some solid fractions, and he has been running close to the best horse in the entire field by far. We will ignore the Dixiana Bourbon Stakes for Ete Indien, because this was a turf race, and he obviously runs a lot better on dirt.
This race was no joke, as some very solid horses such as As Seen on TV and Dennis' Moment were running in this race. It was a very impressive win, wire to wire, in a tough post position. Ete Indien just put these horses away easily, which leads me to believe that he is the second best horse in the Derby, behind Tiz the Law. However, I think that there is a chance that Ete Indien could run away with the Derby. For many years now, speed has dominated the derby, Maximum Security should have won the Derby (except for a ridiculous disqualification), American Pharaoh won the derby very close up on the pace. Nyquist won the derby very close up on the pace, and so did Always Dreaming. Ete Indien could also possibly get sloppy conditions, which could help him go wire to wire. Realistically though, he will probably fade to second or third, just like he did when he faced Tiz the Law in the past. I would strongly consider to play him though in a trifecta or exacta, as he is one of the best horses in the races, and might be considered the best horse if Tiz the Law did not exist.
Thursday, April 9, 2020
Tom's d'Etat Looks to Extend Win Streak in the Oaklawn Mile
On Saturday, Oaklawn will run the Oaklawn Stakes and the Oaklawn mile in a well rounded card, that features several optional claiming races, including many of last years promising 2 year old horses. The race that will be focused on will be the Oaklawn mile. In the race runs Tom's d'Etat who looks to increase his winning streak to 3, after winning the Clark (G1) last time out. Also in the race is Mr. Money who won the Indiana and West Virginia Derby as well as the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby day. Most recently, Mr. Money came second to Math Wizard in the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx, and then had a disappointing 7th in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. To round out the field on the outside position is Improbable, who ran in the Kentucky Derby last year, finishing 4th (through disqualification). Improbable also ran in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, finishing 5th. He is currently 7/2 on the morning line. Mr. Money is 4-1 and Tom's d'Etat is 3-1.
Saratoga Springs Racing will do a full card predictions and bets for Oaklawn Mile Day, and we will give in depth analysis at the Oaklawn Mile and Oaklawn stakes. Enjoy the races and stay safe.
Saratoga Springs Racing will do a full card predictions and bets for Oaklawn Mile Day, and we will give in depth analysis at the Oaklawn Mile and Oaklawn stakes. Enjoy the races and stay safe.
Wednesday, April 8, 2020
Tampa Bay Downs Pick 5 Carryover Predictions & Bet
Tampa Bay Downs Pick 5 Carryover
Tampa Bay Downs will be having a Pick 5 Carryover today, which will have over six figures in carryover money. The first race of the pick 5 will begin at 2 PM Eastern time, as a maiden claimer. We will be giving our predictions for each of the races in the pick 5, and we will also include a constructed bet that you can make for yourself, or you can alter it to your own customized bet.
Race 4: A cheap claimer on the turf at 1 1/16 miles. 3 looks to be the horse to beat in this race. Likes the distance and fits the race. Barely any speed in this race, so someone could possibly run away in this race. I also like the 6 horse. Got a bad trip last race, but previous 3 races were decently run. Might want to consider 9 horse, could be the early pace maker.
PICK: 3-6-9-4
PICK: 3-6-9-4
Race 5: Maiden claimer at 7 furlongs. A bit of speed in this race. 4 looks like the horse to beat, but 6 and 9 could show some early speed and run away with the race. Better off putting more horses into your Pick 5, you never know what will happen in these kind of races. Might want to also consider the 10 horse. 10 could come of the quick pace and win, but it is a bad post position.
PICK: 6-10-9
Race 6: Claimer on the turf at a mile. Lot of speed in this race, but I expect the 1 to go out being on the rail. Does not like to trail. Watch for the 6 to also go out, possibly the 5 also. 6 seems to like this distance the best, but I think that the 8 will benefit the most of this quick pace. Will like all the speed and will stay in the back, pulls away in the end to win it.
Pick: 8-6-1-5
Pick: 8-6-1-5
Race 7: 6 furlong dirt race, with a lot of horses that are great at other distances and surfaces. The 1 looks to set the early pace, but the 9 is by far the strongest horse, earning a top dirt Beyer of 88. 6 could possibly close, but might not get the right pace to close into.
Pick: 9-6-1
Pick: 9-6-1
Race 8: Maiden special weight to end off the pick 5, 1 mile on the turf course. Not much early pace, but a group of promising horses who have gotten poor trips in the past. Looking at 3, she seems to be coming close, stalking behind the pacemakers at 1 mile turf, but I worry that there is a lack of speed, and she will have to go out herself. 2 also promise, but not entirely sure how she'll run. 9 also is in contention, good trainer, could be a hit or miss.
Pick: 3-9-2-1
Pick: 3-9-2-1
Pick 5 Bet (Races 4-8): 3/6-4/6/9/10-8/6-9/6-3/9/2
Total cost of bet (50 cent bet): $48.00
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS- Tiz the Law
Welcome to the Kentucky Derby Contenders profiles. We will be previewing some of the top horses that are contenders for this years Kentucky Derby. We will analyze some of their races, look at their results, and try to make guesses on how they could race in September. We hope you enjoy these previews of these great young colts, as they make their way to the Derby.
Our first horse that we will be previewing is 1st place in the contenders standings: Tiz the Law. Tiz The Law is a Constiution-Tizfiz (Tiznow). He has won nearly a million dollars, and has won races such as The Florida Derby (G1), The Holy Bull (G3), and the Champagne (G1). Tiz the Law is trained by Barclay Tagg and was last ridden by Manuel Franco. He was sold as a yearling for $110,000. Now, let us look at his three best races, and we will also analyze his disappointing third place in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G3) last November.
In the Champagne, Tiz the Law trailed behind the quick early pace. Around the turn, he exploded past the 5 and 3 horses and won easily. This race was very impressive and he has a great burst of speed. He also has enough tactical speed to stay close so that he can make his move. Very impressive race.
Again, Tiz the Law stalked the pace and kept it close. He used his excellent speed and burst to take the lead from Ete Indien, and pulled away easily. Tiz the Law makes his wins look so impressive and so easy. Now, let's look at some of the weaknesses of Tiz the Law.
This race was nearly won by an 84-1 long shot, who kept the pace slow throughout the race. What is concerning is that even though the trip was not ideal for Tiz the Law, he could not close and give the burst of speed that we saw in other races. What will happen if he is not set up for a clean trip like the Champagne, Holy Bull, and Florida Derby? There is a possibility that he wont have clear ground to take off in, and that could lead to problems in the Kentucky Derby, a field of 20 horses. My actual prediction will result heavily on his post position. If he can get the ideal post position, he could get a strong trip, and get the burst of speed he needs. If he can not get the ideal post position, he might have a similar race to the Kentucky Jockey Club.
Monday, April 6, 2020
Kentucky Derby Announcement
In the coming days, we will be releasing Kentucky Derby Contenders Picks, which will analyze some of the top horses coming into September's Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. We will analyze video footage and past performances, and give you some possible future bets to make down the line. Gulfstream and Oaklawn resume racing on Thursday, April 9, stay tuned for possible predictions!
Sunday, April 5, 2020
A World Without Horse Racing
A World Without Horse Racing
It has only been a few days, without horse racing. In fact, it has been weeks since we have seen NBA games, or what should have been the start of the MLB season. But now, we sit in our homes, waiting out Coronavirus, wondering when this epidemic will end, and sports will resume. We all wonder if Saratoga, Belmont, Del Mar, and other great tracks around the United States will open, or if they are delayed, or possibly even cancelled. Currently, only a few tracks are still running races in the United States, including Gulfstream and Oaklawn Park. Now, we have to wait, keep ourselves safe, and move past this virus. So that we can enjoy the great sport of horse racing at tracks such as Saratoga and Del Mar. In other news, the Kentucky Derby has been moved to September 5, 2020, at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby standings are listed as such:
1. Tiz the Law
2. Wells Bayou
3. Ete Indien
4. Modernist
5. Authentic
Remember everyone to stay safe, and check out some of the races at Gulfstream or Oaklawn if you are feeling bored.
If you would like to see Gulfstream or Oaklawn picks, let me know in the comments or email me.
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