Welcome back to Saratoga Springs Racing for this great Saturday card at Oaklawn Park. The card features two stakes races and several optional claiming races, with some great horses. The feature race is the Oaklawn Mile featuring Tom's d'Etat and Improbable. Also in the race is Mr. Money, who ran in the Breeders cup last year. We will be doing full analysis and predicitons for every race on the card.
Race 1: Not a great race, few seem fit for this race. 7, CP Quality looks decent. Will like the quick pace between the 12, 1, and 2. Not much quality in this race other than those horses. Would avoid this race, or just go straight bet on the 7.
PICK: 7-12
Race 2: 8, Miss Imperial is the class of the race. Has run in some solid races, and has been running well. The 2 horse, Enjay's Brass has been getting better each race off the first claim, and I expect a good run here with the quick pace. Post position is a little worrying, might go up and challenge the front. 3 horse might do something, but is just at the same class level as other horses in this race, probably is going to look to challenge the pace.
PICK: 8-2-11-3
Race 3: Oak Room is an interesting horse, with pretty solid, improving workouts. Into Mischief is a very hot sire and this was a broodmare horse. Joe Talamo and trainer dirt angle (0.26) seem to be a good fit for this horse. 8 and 9 horse have run in a race before, which makes them likely to do well. They both ran well in their first race, but I hate Rosario on the 8 horse, and he will likely either take him to the way back or to the front of the race, and give him no chance of winning, probably will close in for third. 6 horse has also been improving every race, probably will finish in top 4, or at least contest the pace.
PICK: 3-9-8-6
Race 4: The first quality race of the day at a mile on the dirt. Cleon Jones has run consistently, and has run well, and 1 mile seems to be the ideal distance. Will like the quick pace given to him, and will do well. Rail might be an issue for Cleon Jones though, as he has never run on the rail in the past. The 4 horse, Scabbard has run in some good races, but has never delivered. Scabbard does not seem to be in the right form, but I think he can squeeze out a second place in this race. I do not like the 2, Shooters Short, as he got away with a moderately fast pace for a 92 Beyer in a Maiden Special Weight. His morning line of 7-2 is purely on the fact that he ran well in two Maidens. He is unproven, and will get burned out by the strong closers. 5 is a good horse, but not great, and will probably contest the pace and fade to fourth. The biggest risk is 3rd place, Fort McHenry, the famous1.1 million dollar horse who has had poor results. However, I think that he can turn it around in this race, and he still has potential to improve. He did not run bad races at 1 mile, they just were not great, but they will be good enough to hold on for third.
PICK: 1-4-9-5
Race 5: 6 furlong maiden race. 2 is probably going to try and set the pace, and will fade to third. I like the 6 horse, Casual. Casual has been training well, and has the great sire, Curlin. Casual also has a great trainer-jockey combination, that will work well at this distance. The 11 horse, Silverbella also looks good, and closed well on a sloppy surface. Silverbella will appreciate the dry track today at Oaklawn.
PICK: 6-11-2
Race 6: Captain Bombastic is by far the best horse in this race, and I am not sure if there is a experienced horse to pair him with. I would single 2, Captain Bombastic and then if you want to throw in a mix of horses with him you could, but many of these horses are unproven and have succeeded at shorter distances, but can they last the mile?
PICK: 2
Race 7: 11 horse, Earner confuses me, I do not understand what would signal that this horse would be a turf router. The pedigree signals long dirt, but not necessarily turf. Very risky choice, as he has not trained on turf either. 6, Absolute Unit, has been improving every race, and seems to like this distance decently. 1, Pit Boss has great training numbers and solid pedigree. Might want to do an exacts with the 1 and 6 horses, who seem to be viable contenders in this race.
PICK: 6-1-11
Race 8: Number 3, Mo Gotcha is taking a huge class drop and has been running well. I think that this race will suit him well, and he will enjoy this race. Other horses to consider are the 6, Starship Zeus, who is taking a huge class drop and has run well at this distance, with good Beyer numbers. Proverb, number 9, is going to probably be the favorite in this race, but I worry that Rosario will do something stupid and will lead to him loosing the race. 11 likes this distance decently, but has a bad post position, and there are better choices at better prices.
PICK: 3-6-9-11
Race 9: Tom's d'Etat will look to continue his winning streak in the Oaklawn Mile at 1 mile. His top two competitors are Mr. Money and Improbable, who I believe will not finish in the top 3. I think that Improbable is overrated and has been running quite poorly, even in class drops, and I do not like his current form. Mr. Money is just flat out poor at this distance, except for one race. Now, if you ignore those two horses, who would you put with Tom's d'Etat? Well, I like Bankit, a 15-1 long shot, who runs well at this distance, and can hopefully close into this pace. This will be the hardest race of his career, but he seems to be in form. I also like the 4 horse, Pioneer Spirit, who is definitely in form for this race, and has been running very well at this distance with high Beyer figures.
PICK: 3-8-4-2-14-10 (Possible exacta or trifecta pairings for this race, since you have the potential to hit a longshot with the 4, 8, or 10 horse).
Race 10: No analysis available for this race.
Race 11: Now we reach the Oaklawn Stakes, for many of last years promising 2 year old horses, who are very solid, but not good enough to contend for the Kentucky Derby. Thousand Words has run very well, and is familiar with this distance. I also like the 6 horse to pair him with, as Shoplifted is a longshot, who has run well, but not great. Shoplifted is a $800,000 Into Mischief son, who won the Songbird Mile, and has run well in his other races, finishing 2nd in last year's Hopeful (G1).
PICK: 4-6
Race 12: No analysis available for this race.