Tom's d'Etat takes on tough competition in Whitney + Maximum Security Returns for Breeders Cup Run

On Saturday, Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Oaklawn Mile and the Stephen Foster Stakes of this year, will try to continue his dominance over a small, but talented field of older males hoping to secure a spot in this year's Breeders Cup Classic. By My Standards, who was the runner up to Tom's d'Etat in the Stephen Foster will try to bounce back in this race at Saratoga. Code of Honor, who ran in the Met Mile, will return at 5-2 odds to try and show flashes of potential we saw last year at Saratoga in the Travers. Rounding up the field is Improbable, who won the Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes, but previously had struggled after a promising run towards the Kentucky Derby in 2019. Mr. Buff finishes of the field as the longshot, who dominated NY bred horses in non-graded stakes, but last time out in the Suburban, he struggled against Tacitus. Saratoga's card will also feature the Allen H. Jerkens (G1), with No Parole, winner of the Woody Stephens, and the Personal Ensign (G1), which will feature the dominant Midnight Bisou. All of these races on Whitney day, will be on the website, with in depth analysis of each of the races with tips for betting. 

Maximum Security, winner of the richest race in history, and infamous for being disqualified from 1st in last year's Kentucky Derby, returned to the scene with Bob Baffert to win the San Diego Handicap by a nose to Midcourt. MS is a very talented horse who has a chance at winning the Breeders Cup Classic. This race was a hiccup for sure, but it was still a solid performance with a 101 speed figure for a first race back with a new trainer and jockey. Time will tell, but Maximum Security still has a lot to prove if he can win the Breeders Cup Classic and become one of the all time great horses, coming out of the shadow of last year's Derby. 

Derby Hopefuls Lineup in Saratoga Opening Day Card

Today, Saratoga will race without regular fans, as they continue to fight the ongoing threat of Covid-19. Regardless, races will be run with reduced purses. In the opening day card at Saratoga, there will be the Peter Pan (G3), which will give Kentucky Derby points. Inside of the race is Risen Star winner Modernist, Graded placed, Candy Tycoon, and the promising, but still unproven favorite, Mystic Guide. In the other stakes race of the day, the Schuylerville (G3), Beautiful Memories, the very short favorite will look to improve her dominance over a light field, with her 75 Beyer, only matched by Hopeful Princess. As we go into the first day of racing at Saratoga, here are some light bets that I will be making on the race, and potentially a little explanation on my thought process for each of the races. 

Race 1: 6-1-5

Race 2: 1-5

Race 3: Pass, small field with short prices, a lot of confusion on the pace of the race, with unpredictable thought processes of each of these horses. 

Race 4: 7-2

Race 5: 4-5, 4 has the Beyers and the results to contend in this race, and is a good price at 8-1 ML. This race seems to short for 8, The Care Taker to win, but I could be proven wrong.

Race 6: 5-9

Race 7: 9, good pace setup potential for Summer At the Spa to get a good run in. 

Race 8: 8 or 3, no way to tell which one is better since they have better speed figures, but 3 might have put in less of an effort at the end to win by 10, I would just choose the better price as Beautiful Memories is probably going to get bet to even or under.

Race 9: 5, Candy Tycoon has run decently in the past and is getting a good pace, this whole field seems a bit unpredictable, and I can not really see an honest pace being set up for this race. 

Race 10: Pass. 

Met Mile Day Recap + Son of Tapit Dominates Suburban

On Met Mile Day, we watched Vekoma take the Met Mile at Belmont, where he won impressively, leading throughout the race and pulling away late past Chad Brown's Network Effect, and last years Travers winner, Code of Honor. McKinzie, the favorite of the Met Mile, had a dissapointing result, finishing 5th and never finding an angle to close in on the speed in the race. George Weaver is pointing Vekoma towards the Forego (G1) at Saratoga this summer. 

 In the Manhattan, Chad Brown managed to pull out the exacta, with Instilled Regard firing late to pull away from Rockemperor. Sadler's Joy, who had trailed throughout the race closed late for third. Channel Maker, who stalked the pace throughout came 4th, after multiple disappointing previous races. Instilled Regard could target races such as the Bowling Green (G2) and then the Sword Dancer (G1) in prep for the Breeders Cup, or he could keep Instilled Regard running at the 1 1/4 distance. 

In the last race of the day, Tacitus had a dominant win in the Suburban (G2), where he beat competitors such as Mr. Buff and Sir Winston, who had won the Belmont Stakes last year, beating Tacitus by a legnth. Today, Sir Winston trailed throughout and made no effort to close, losing by over 20 lengths. Mr. Buff stalked the pace before fading, while Tacitus exploded towards the lead. Moretti finished second, and Parsimony finished third. Tacitus had struggled in recent races, finishing 5th in the Saudi Cup and 4th in the Oaklawn Handicap. This was his first win since winning the Wood Memorial in 2019. After that, he had setbacks in the Jim Dandy, Belmont, and Travers, but today he showed how talented of a horse he can be.