Friday, May 22, 2020
Churchill Stakes Races & Breeders Cup Winner Returns
Saturday's card at Churchill Downs features mutliple stakes races, including the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes, which will have Derby Contenders points for a total of 85 points. The race features Breeders Cup winning Maxfield and Attachment Rate. Many other great horses are running on Saturday's card, including Mr. Money, Owendale, and Global Campaign in the Blame Stakes. Last year's Alabama Stakes winner, Dunbar Road, will take on She's A Julie in the Shawnee Stakes. Multiple graded races will be run at Santa Anita on Saturday, which include horses such as United and Rockemperor. United had a surprising second place last year, behind the mighty Bricks and Mortar in the Breeders Cup Turf.
Thursday, May 7, 2020
Kentucky Derby Probables and Early Preview
After dominating wins in the two Arkansas Derby races, Charlatan and Nadal will get ready for September's Kentucky Derby. Charlatan took the field wire to wire with quick impressive fractions. Nadal faced tough competition and managed to impressivley pull away to secure a spot in the Derby. Currently, it looks like Tiz the Law and Nadal are co-favorites, with Charlatan in a close third. All three horses are very impressive, but I worry that a lack of experience could hurt Charlatan, compared to Nadal and Tiz the Law, who have run in many graded races. On Arkansas Derby day, By My Standards took the Oaklawn Handicap, and will now look to target the Breeders Cup later in the year. Talks that the Preakness and Belmont could be moved to later in the year after the Derby. The date of the Breeders Cup is still in question, a long with the Travers in late August.
Saturday, May 2, 2020
Arkansas Derby Day FULL Predictions
Welcome back to Saratoga Springs Racing, where today we will be analyzing the Arkansas Derby which which will be run in two divisions. The Oaklawn Handicap and many high quality allowance races will be run today. We will be doing full predictions for the races today.
Race 1: Miss Imperial has a solid post position in this race, and the Beyer figures are nothing to sneeze at. Full of Grace has potential in this race, but she has run inconsistently. Timely Tradition, the favorite, has the inside post position and will have to show speed in this race. By far the classiest horse in the race and can handle the inside rail. The question is if Rosario takes her to the front of the race.
PICK: 3-1
Race 2: Scolding seems to be the only logical pick in this race, as she is a 475k horse by Carpe Diem and Rebuke. Assmussen and Santana combination is good, with 20% first start. She's the Boss is going from turf to dirt (13%) and will try to stalk the pace or even set the early pace. A race to avoid is the best way to put it.
PICK: 6-1
Race 3: Tempt Fate has run very well and continues to improve. After a recent third in stakes competition, he will drop in class in this allowance race. He has run very solid at this distance and will have a good post position to close into. Captain Don is inconsistent, but has potential to control the pace and win. Call me Derby could be used underneath, with two solid wins in his last two races. Would not consider putting Call me Derby in exacta or win though.
PICK: 4-2-10
Race 4: No Predictions
Race 5: Endorsed and Pirate's Punch will go out it on the outside, two horses that will drop in class, putting up great Beyer figures. Pirate's Punch has put up great Beyer figures and is in form. Endorsed is coming off a 5th in a G1 and finished 4th in last year's Travers at Saratoga. Consider putting Bankit and Long Range Toddy underneath. Rated R Superstar can also be in the mix with good odds and respectable Beyer figures.
PICK: 12-11-9-3-2
Race 6, 7, 8: No Predictions
Race 9: Fearless and Popular Kid will battle it out on the inside with solid Beyer figures. I will give the edge to Fearless in this one because I am unsure if Popular Kid can run a good race on the inside and on a fast track. Both will be in contention throughout. Rotation looks to contest the pace and has very solid numbers. Lord Guiness could also be in contention with a solid 98 figure at this distance.
PICK: 3-7-1-8
Race 10: No Predictions
Race 11: For the first running of the Arkansas Derby, Charlatan will look to dominate this field of horses. With tremendous figures, you can not pass on this horse. Anneau d'Or and Gouvernor Morris seem to be fit for this race and have run good races behind some of the best contenders for this year's Kentucky Derby in September.
PICK: 1-8-4-11
Race 12: Since the Kentucky Derby, By My Standards has run very well and very consistent. Other horses to consider in this race behind him are Mr. Money, Tacitus, and Combatant. In third place, you might want to consider Trophy Chaser and Improbable. Might be the best and most entertaining race on today's card.
PICK: 12-6/7/9-14/2/-6
Race 13: The second Arkansas Derby will feature Well Bayou and King Guilleremo, winners of the Louisiana Derby and the Tampa Bay Derby. Nadal the favorite will try and win his 4th straight, and will look to be the favorite in this year's Kentucky Derby. Storm the Court can be used under, but after last year's Juvenille win, he has not done very well in his races.
PICK: 5-4-11-3
Race 1: Miss Imperial has a solid post position in this race, and the Beyer figures are nothing to sneeze at. Full of Grace has potential in this race, but she has run inconsistently. Timely Tradition, the favorite, has the inside post position and will have to show speed in this race. By far the classiest horse in the race and can handle the inside rail. The question is if Rosario takes her to the front of the race.
PICK: 3-1
Race 2: Scolding seems to be the only logical pick in this race, as she is a 475k horse by Carpe Diem and Rebuke. Assmussen and Santana combination is good, with 20% first start. She's the Boss is going from turf to dirt (13%) and will try to stalk the pace or even set the early pace. A race to avoid is the best way to put it.
PICK: 6-1
Race 3: Tempt Fate has run very well and continues to improve. After a recent third in stakes competition, he will drop in class in this allowance race. He has run very solid at this distance and will have a good post position to close into. Captain Don is inconsistent, but has potential to control the pace and win. Call me Derby could be used underneath, with two solid wins in his last two races. Would not consider putting Call me Derby in exacta or win though.
PICK: 4-2-10
Race 4: No Predictions
Race 5: Endorsed and Pirate's Punch will go out it on the outside, two horses that will drop in class, putting up great Beyer figures. Pirate's Punch has put up great Beyer figures and is in form. Endorsed is coming off a 5th in a G1 and finished 4th in last year's Travers at Saratoga. Consider putting Bankit and Long Range Toddy underneath. Rated R Superstar can also be in the mix with good odds and respectable Beyer figures.
PICK: 12-11-9-3-2
Race 6, 7, 8: No Predictions
Race 9: Fearless and Popular Kid will battle it out on the inside with solid Beyer figures. I will give the edge to Fearless in this one because I am unsure if Popular Kid can run a good race on the inside and on a fast track. Both will be in contention throughout. Rotation looks to contest the pace and has very solid numbers. Lord Guiness could also be in contention with a solid 98 figure at this distance.
PICK: 3-7-1-8
Race 10: No Predictions
Race 11: For the first running of the Arkansas Derby, Charlatan will look to dominate this field of horses. With tremendous figures, you can not pass on this horse. Anneau d'Or and Gouvernor Morris seem to be fit for this race and have run good races behind some of the best contenders for this year's Kentucky Derby in September.
PICK: 1-8-4-11
Race 12: Since the Kentucky Derby, By My Standards has run very well and very consistent. Other horses to consider in this race behind him are Mr. Money, Tacitus, and Combatant. In third place, you might want to consider Trophy Chaser and Improbable. Might be the best and most entertaining race on today's card.
PICK: 12-6/7/9-14/2/-6
Race 13: The second Arkansas Derby will feature Well Bayou and King Guilleremo, winners of the Louisiana Derby and the Tampa Bay Derby. Nadal the favorite will try and win his 4th straight, and will look to be the favorite in this year's Kentucky Derby. Storm the Court can be used under, but after last year's Juvenille win, he has not done very well in his races.
PICK: 5-4-11-3
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