Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Saratoga Opening Day Predictions

Welcome to Saratoga Springs Racing, where we are all excited for the start of the Saratoga meet starting on Thursday, July 11. Opening day will feature the G3 Schuylerville for 2-Year-Olds, and the G2 The Quick Call. It will be an exciting day of racing for sure, and we will be featuring a Daily Double bet and an Early Pick 3 bet.
NOTE: Because of the high chance for good weather, only regular bets will be provided for races. If rain somehow takes races off the turf, we will only update our regular bets 10 MTP. We apologize that we cannot update our Pick 3 and Daily Double picks. If the rain begins, and races are immediately washed off the turf, we can update our specialty picks for you!
Daily Double (R1 & R2) and Early Pick 3 (R1-R3)

Daily Double: (3/6-2)
Early Pick 3:(3/6-2-2)


Race 1: Race 1 is a $32,000 claiming race, at 1 3/16 miles on the dirt (Star of EP3 & DD)..
NOTES: Race 1 is a very interesting race, as you can find a lot of value in this race. My value pick has to be the number 3 horse, who appreciated the switch to dirt, running second twice, and nearly winning. The distance increase will help, and Carmouche will help stalk the pace. This horse ran once at this distance and got an 82 buyer, which is the top of the class in this claimer. What is confusing is the fact that many trainers such as 7 and 2 are racing their horses at far longer distances that they can hold upon, and the fact that these two horses are the favorites, means that you are getting a lot of value out of the other horses. I also have a little interest in the 6, who could stalk the pace and close, but I worry that the fractions will be too quick, and he will burn out. Maybe you could throw in the 4, who has had terrible form recently but could turn around today.
PICK: 3-6-2-4

Race 2: Race 2 is a $90k Maiden Special Weight, at 5 1/2 furlongs on the Inner Turf Course (End of DD).
NOTES: This race would be a more competitive race if the 12 horse could have had a better post. Seems like the 12 will be forced to go out with the 11 and then the 2 can cruise on by to win a chalky race. I think if the 12 had a better post position (perhaps in the 3-6 range) it could have won the race. The 11 will fade to 3rd like it did in a recent 5 Furlong showing. 8 could be a longshot in some exotic bets that was sold at an expensive price. Could close, but looks more like a long distance horse than a sprinter.
PICK: 2-12-11-8

Race 3: Race 3 is a $92k allowance race at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt (End of P3).
NOTES: This race is an interesting race. First, we can take a quick look at the favorite number 4, who has put up some very impressive buyers recently, but I don't think looking at his most recent race at allowance, he will be able to stand against the competition is this very talented field. I expect him to come second in this race (similar to what he did last race). The horse that I like in this race is the number 2 horse, who I think will like the distance increase in this fast field. The strongest horse in this field has to bet the 6 horse, where I'm not sure if this distance increase will be appreciated, as I think he is more of a mile or 7 furlongs horse than a long distance horse.
PICK: 2-4-6-7

Race 4: Race 4 is a $50k claiming race at 1 mile on the inner turf course.
NOTES: This race has 2 sped horses who typically can't hold with other speed in the race. Even though 2 is the favorite, I think he will enjoy this quick pace and has a decent price at 3-1. I think 10 and 5 will be able to hold on for 2nd and 3rd. A longshot to consider is the number 6 horse, who has only raced once on turf but is a deep closer. You might want to throw him in, as he could possibly have a late charge into the top 3.
PICK: 2-10-5-6

Race 5: Race 5 is a $78k maiden special weight at 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt.
NOTES: This race will be tough, as these horses are all 2 years old, and only a few have ever raced in their lives. The 3 is an interesting pick, as she has great training numbers and a good jockey-trainer combination. I would recommend sticking with a WPS bet, as these 2 YO maiden special weights can have crazy finishes, so don't expect for you to cash in an exacta or trifecta in this race.
PICK: 3-9-2-1

Race 6: Race 6 is an $80k allowance race at 5 1/2 furlongs on the Mellon turf course.
NOTES: I recommend betting against the favorites in this race because there is a lot of talented specialists at this distance. My eye catches the number 4 horse, who has done very well at this distance. Another horse might be the 8, who appears to want a shorter turf distance. I think the 1 and 1A horses are poor at this distance and ill-suited for 5 1/2 furlongs, as they both appear to want to go longer than shorter. This is a great race to try and go with a trifecta or superfecta because there is so much value in some of these longshots.
PICK: 4-8-9-10

Race 7: Race 7 is an $83k allowance optional claimer at 1 /18 miles on the inner turf course.
NOTES: This is a pretty solid race, as these horses are very high-quality horses. For instance, the 4 and 5 horses have raced in graded races, including the 5's very decent outing in the G1 Diana finishing seventh by 5 lengths. However, I like the 10 horse who will appreciate the distance upping and has already run well recently. He is in good shape and will close strong, while the 5 closes for fourth, the 4 flattens to 2nd and the longshot 6 finishes 3rd on an appreciated distance increase.
PICK: 10-4-6-5

Race 8: Race 8 is the $150k G3 Schuylerville at 6 furlongs on the dirt.
NOTES: Similar to maiden special weights for 2-year-olds, this race is hard to tell who is going to win. One thing is for sure, there is a ridiculous amount of speed in this race, which means that a closer could take advantage. My eyes are looking at the 6 horse, who raced at 5 furlongs and still closed. The extra furlong will help this horse cruise on by, while horses like the 1 and 8 can hold on for 2nd and 3rd. Overall, I would recommend doing an exacta, because you could get good value out of the 6 horse at 12-1, maybe pairing it with the 1 and 8 horse.
PICK: 6-1-8-9

Race 9: Race 9 is a $100k G2 The Quick Call at 5 1/2 furlongs on the Mellon turf course.
NOTES: 6 is just the class of the race. I don't think any of these other horses under a good ride could beat the 6, as they just haven't faced the same competition. For a time, Call Paul was one of the top Kentucky Derby contenders as a 2-year-old and hasn't slowed down as 3-year-old. I also expect good things from the 10 and 4, who have a good setup in this race, and will appreciate this 5 1/2 furlong turf race. You might want to go play some exotics, but it is riskier due to the fact that is the shortest race at Saratoga, and anything can happen in these types of races.
PICK: 6-4-10-1

Race 10 is the final race of the opening day and is a $48k maiden claiming race at 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf course.
NOTES: In my opinion, betting on maiden claimers is a huge gamble and you can rarely get the right pick, but if you want to look at a horse, you might want to check out the 5 horse, who might have promise being a Chad Brown horse, and likely he senses something is wrong with the horse or it could be injury prone. However, it is well trained and could do well in this race, not to mention it has a great price at 6-1.
PICK: 5